I was looking at the AAP prepost market and back analysing the results of 1M+ the somebody had summarised.
These had been linked to the tote prices.
I was under the belief that the tote market is a 85% market. Prepost is generally over 100%. Thus to get a 100% market the prices must ease. However some firm and some stay the same. meaning that those that ease must ease longer.

So I started looking at the number that firmed. And found that significantly more firmed than eased. which put my initial thoughts out of whack.

Then I searched for an answer and had the eureka moment. The AAP prepost are the odds expressed as currency and the Tote prices are not odds but a formula based on the market less the rake. Two totally different things. However the tote price is a reflection of what the market thinks the odds are.

Hence a $2.50 PP odds has to match with a $2.10 tote odds. This being $2.50 chance minus 15% minus the round. Hence the pp odds to tote price
are always going to be unders. Which in turn explains there is a significant parity between unders and overs (It is not until you get to the $40-50 band that the unders equal the overs).

Food for thought and discussion. Also adds to the fact that unders are more profitable than overs.