Trying to somehow drag the odds towards my hip pocket .......

I think the topweight wins approx 18% of the time, but stand to be corrected. And it is my opinion (which probably amounts for little) that the handicapper has decided that the topweight is the class runner in the field. Class in any sport will prevail, why not horse racing?

You can shoot me down for this next statement but ********I just cannot see how a few extra kilograms can stop a 600 kilogram horse********. The bonus is that you can have almost any jockey you wish with the topweight (no wasting to make the weight). I'm sure the top jockeys superior balance and skills would override half a percent weight pull a couple of other runners may have over the topweight. Yes, half a percent! OK, so we have the class runner who has proven they like the track and distance.

What about the horses readiness to run a top race. If the trainer has put the horse on it's favourite track, at a distance it can still be considered to be able to win at (no use backing a potential Melbourne Cup horse first up over 1200 metres when it last won as a two year old over that distance), then one must consider it has a reasonable chance.

So we have

Topweight
Saturday in Melbourne or Sydney.
Get rid of 2 y/o races.
Add a filter of running within 21 days.
Must have won at track & distance.
Must handle conditions.

What's wrong with that logic?