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Overbet Form Factor
After running some analysis on my ratings for Saturday Metro races over the past 14 months since January 2013 I have found something interesting. Overall my top rated horse has the following results with no additional filters based on NSWTAB dividends:
Races - 2323 Wins - 651 S/R - 28% Return - 2371 P/L - 48 POT - 2.1% Now after running through some filters I found that 1 filter had almost identical bets and wins but a very different return. The filter is "Won at the Track", here is what I found: Not Won At The Track Races - 1162 Wins - 321 S/R - 28% Return - 1252 P/L - 90 POT - 8% Won At The Track Races - 1161 Wins - 330 S/R - 28% Return - 1118 P/L - -42 LOT - 4% With almost identical bets and wins the only conclusion I can draw is that this factor has no actual bearing on whether the horse will or won't win but it has a very big bearing on the price of the horse on the TAB......very interesting. |
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