"It can't be done"....I can hear you say.

If you scour through early posts of mine from last year, you'll see that I was of the view that Laying longshots was akin to scouring the carpet in your local TAB for 'bumpers' and 'change' that had fallen out of the winning punters pockets!

That was until I started to take notice of a Longshot Layer aficionado.

I'm reading your minds now.....(Betfair's Lay prices are more than double that of the tote, no value there!) That's correct, but have you ever taken the time to find out what the TRUE odds of a $40 plus horse on the tote, winning??

A step back first, how does all this come about? Most people want to Back favourites, the path to riches right? Bookmakers have to offer competitive prices for these horses. To make up for this bias, and to balance their books, they offer prices far shorter for longshots......."Prove it RP, I dare you!"

OK, over the past 800 days:

Av. SP $................Av.SP %..............Actual % SR.............Actual % SR $
40~49....................2.25%.................... .1.3%.....................$77
50~59....................1.83%.................... .0.8%....................$125
60~69....................1.55%.................... .0.4%....................$250
70~79....................1.34%.................... .0.6%....................$167
80~89....................1.18%.................... .0.4%....................$250
90~99....................1.06%.................... .0.1%..................$1000
100~109.................0.96%....................0 .2%....................$500

So, if you see a horse on the tote with a price of $100 and it's Lay price is under $500 on Betfair, that's a value bet you're looking at! I know that most of you still won't be convinced as the small pays for large risk is like 'embarrassing'.....lol, but that's OK, you keep Backing those favourites and I'll keep withdrawing the 'small change' from the ATM.