A Quick look at perpetual Back the Favourite, Bet Against the Underdog in the NRL based on Round 1 Permiership Odds

What would have happened, if at the start of the season, you (well, me) decided to back the favorites in for every round (ie, Back the Roosters in every game they play), and back to opposition of the underdogs (ie, Back anyone playing Souths)? And, yeah I know this is hindsight, but I thought you guys might like to see the results.

Let's see (we'll use TAB odds, but you can get better odds on the favourite from other places). The staking plan I used is betting enough money to return $100 on a win, rather than a flat bet each match.

Back the Roosters in every Round

Round   Odds	Result	Bet 	Profit

1	1.06	W	$94.34	$5.66

2	1.31	W	$76.34	$23.66

3	1.72	W	$58.14	$41.86

4	1.67	L	$59.88	-$59.88

5	1.57	L	$63.69	-$63.69

6	1.51	W	$66.23	$33.77

7	1.67	W	$59.88	$40.12

8	1.31	W	$76.34	$23.66

9	1.12	W	$89.29	$10.71

10	1.45	W	$68.97	$31.03

11	0	B	$0.00	$0.00

12	1.21	W	$82.64	$17.36

13	1.62	L	$61.73	-$61.73

14	0	B	$0.00	$0.00

15	1.21	W	$82.64	$17.36

16	1.18	W	$84.75	$15.25



17	1.28	W	$78.13	$21.88

18	1.31	L	$76.34	-$76.34

19	1.4	W	$71.43	$28.57

20	1.11	W	$90.09	$9.91

21	1.45	W	$68.97	$31.03



Total Profit: $90.21 (6% return)

A tough way to get a 6% return. But better than a 21 week bank deposit.

As you can see, the Roosters are a pretty good bet when there odds are under $1.56.

Back Against Souths in every Round
Odds=Opposition Odds, Result=Result for Opposition

Round	Odds	Result	Bet	Profit

1	1.06	W	$94.34	$5.66

2	1.51	L	$66.23	-$66.23

3	0	B	$0.00	$0.00

4	1.51	L	$66.23	-$66.23

5	1.36	W	$73.53	$26.47

6	1.18	W	$84.75	$15.25

7	1.07	W	$93.46	$6.54

8	1.11	W	$90.09	$9.91

9	1.05	W	$95.24	$4.76

10	1.4	W	$71.43	$28.57

11	1.45	W	$68.97	$31.03

12	1.12	W	$89.29	$10.71

13	0	B	$0.00	$0.00

14	1.18	L	$84.75	-$84.75

15	1.4	W	$71.43	$28.57

16	1.16	W	$86.21	$13.79

17	1.24	W	$80.65	$19.35

18	1.18	L	$84.75	-$84.75

19	1.51	W	$66.23	$33.77

20	1.11	W	$90.09	$9.91

21	1.45	W	$68.97	$31.03



Total Profit: -$26.58 (2% loss)

So, a slight loss on betting against the Bunnies.



[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-08-03 15:31 ]