About 8 years ago I came across a publication which, inter alia, described a method of punting which the author claimed produced a POT of +/- 19%. Being somewhat greedy and intrigued by the return I attempted to reproduce the results over a couple of years but never managed to get near the target.

I put the method aside for a few years until I had accumulated a sufficiently accurate and complete database of results (+/- 12 years) and the ability to run complex queries. The method was then re-examined.

It is NOT my intention to pooh-pooh the claims of the author of the method as he/she has somewhat of a reputation in the industry and is apparently held in respect by his/her clients. My aim is to demonstrate what happens when one looks at the long term rather than rely on short term results as the basis of published claims.

The Method :-
(a) Going MUST be Slow or better.
(b) Distance MUST be greater than 1200 metres.
(c) Favourite TAB Price MUST be <$4.00 (Fixed)
(d) Fav. MUST be 1st or 2nd Rated in My Fine Ratings (MFR's)

If the above conditions are satisfied then Dutch the Top Two MFR's.

Run over a "couple of months' on weekdays a POT of >17% is claimed.

I DO NOT hold the MFR's for 12 years. However, what I can demonstrate is that regardless of what the MFR's are (always including one of the Top Two as Favourite) the Method is a LOSER (and will always be a LOSER) over more than a 'couple of months'.

Check Method used :-
(a) 7 days per week
(b) Going Slow or better
(c) Race Dist. >1200 m.
(d) Races 4 - 8 incl. (to eliminate weak early races)
(e) NO Maiden races (reason as above)
(f) Fav. TAB Price <$4.00
(g) 8 to 12 starters ONLY (to improve results)

Based on the above criteria the 12 year results of the Favourite are :-

32.05% Win Strike Rate @ Av. TAB of $2.73

So we now know that the first 'leg' of our Dutch will have a WSR of +/- 32.05% which requires a TAB Price of $3.12 JUST TO BREAK EVEN. When our MFR is Fav. it's going to have an SP of +/- $2.73 so we're already in trouble.

The proponent will then comment that it's the 2nd leg of the Dutch that will make up the difference and the Fav. is just there to help break-even.

Let's examine that proposition.

If the Fav. (#1 in the Odds queue) doesn't win then in a 12 horse race (to take the
worst example) I can expect the 6th Odds Ranked horse to win 5.2% of the time and
I'm covering 95% of the possibilities.

So, by doing a cross run of the Fav. versus ALL other contenders from 2nd to 6th Favourite and calculating the Dutches we should be able to detect where this claimed profitable area originates.

FAV 2 FAV 3 FAV 4 FAV 5 FAV 6
Strike Rate 18.88% 13.55% 10.72% 8.38% 6.37%
TAB Price $4.56 $6.06 $7.75 $9.99 $12.90
Dutch SR 50.93% 45.60% 42.77% 40.42% 38.42%
Dutch Need $1.96 $2.19 $2.34 $2.47 $2.60
Dutch Actual $1.71 $1.86 $1.99 $2.18 $2.25

What the last two lines of the table reveal is that the Fav. combined with ANY of Faves 2 to 6 is going to produce a Dutch LOSER at TAB Prices.

Think about what this actually means in terms of the 'method' run over a 'couple of months' ..........