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Old 18th September 2015, 10:32 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,420
Default Target betting (again) feasible or not?

Just thought I’d touch on this one again, as we all know loss chasing per se is doomed to disaster in the end IF it is open ended .i.e. the simple example is all we have to do is double our stake or cover to win until the next winner, simple eh? …….. If only,?? Well of course if you had enough money to fund that you wouldn’t need to do it and there’s no bookie that would take the bets needed, not much rocket science there, but it does get a bit more interesting when you include a “stop loss” ……i.e. let’s say you have a desired amount to win per race or per investment, lets say it’s $5 per bet, so you set a maximum bank that you are prepared to lose, let’s say that is $1000. (not set in concrete) Now multiply that by 5, so you now have $5000 committed. (i.e. 5 banks)

The next step is deciding on your method of selection that suits you…. It could be as simple as the pre post fav. at your local track, or 5 state tracks (time order) , you could include filters or whatever, actually that part of it almost irrelevant, as long as it has a decent S/R and of course as close to break even or in profit as possible, AND as long as you stick to the original selection method like glue.

OK, but we still know that eventually that Bank- breaking run WILL happen. So we could run with just re-grouping and starting again with the new Bank no.2, then Bank No.3 etc, etc. and of course you would have had accumulated winnings along the line so even if you eventually wiped out all 5 banks it’s quite possible that you could still be in front (but not guaranteed)

Now another angle, let’s say as the bank increases (when all is going well) every time the bank increases by say, 10% (variable) we increase the amount we desire to win per bet by 10% etc, etc, etc . OR in fact you could do that daily or whatever.

Make no mistake unless you were particularly born lucky there would be lost Banks, some times Banks that had been built up incredibly only to be shafted by that long losing run, but what we are looking for is that instance when we have the long WINNING run, then get out with the Bacon!!

One last suggestion that I have found most helpful over the years is this little trick: when target betting and the selection is less than 3-1 i.e. $4, back it as if it was $4, eg. Say our target had reached $42 and the next selection is only showing $2, don’t wager $42, only wager $14, now IF it wins we obviously haven’t achieved our target, but we have helped things along a bit, so carry on etc, etc. Now if it loses we have only lost $14 instead of $42. I’ve found this can often get you through to the next winner @$4 or better, whereas if you always bet to the true odds the bank can be quite quickly wiped out if you just happen to have a run of shorties that all get beat.

Sooner or later you will hit that long winning run over months, and you could even put a stop loss rule to that eg. When the Bank reaches $5000 (or whatever) STOP withdraw the cash and start again. You could even have 2 banks running at the same time one with a smaller “stop win” (as it were) and 1 with a much larger stop win, (always going for the big one , BUT over time)

Input appreciated as are questions.
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