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Swarm / RoR Approach
Off the back of the discussion in the general section I've taken a bit of a mechanical approach to what was talked about in the Swarm thread. Basically I've taken 7 ratings sources and created a single rating to price the runners. I've adjusted the weighting for each race based on race distance and race prizemoney and the historical results each ratings source has had in those race bands. The following are the top 4 raters and my calculated odds based on a 117% market for the races today with what I deem enough data for the ratings to be viable.
What i've decided to do just for a bit of fun today is back the runners in the top 4 that are overlays (or thereabouts) based on current fixed odds with only backing a maximum of two per race. I hope that makes sense and i've marked them with an X below. Will be interesting to see how the Swarm / Rating of Ratings approach goes for a bit of fun and maybe some further discussion either in this thread or the thread in the general forum. IPSWICH - 3 1 - 1 - VA VA VENI - $2.72 X 2 - 4 - PANNO ROSSA - $4.87 3 - 3 - DENONINATOR - $5.67 4 - 2 - ELECTRIC DEE JAY - $5.99 X IPSWICH - 4 1 - 3 - MOSS HARRY - $3.48 2 - 2 - SUNSET SHOWDOWN - $5.30 X 3 - 5 - LORD TSCHARKE - $5.33 4 - 1 - MR CHA CHA - $6.29 X IPSWICH - 6 1 - 3 - BEAUXBATON - $3.30 X 2 - 1 - JACK LANCASTER - $4.44 X 3 - 2 - MY COUSIN BOSSY - $4.57 4 - 5 - NO MORE MISTAKES - $8.45 IPSWICH - 7 1 - 5 - TOP TONE - $3.23 2 - 6 - RED BOWERS - $3.56 X 3 - 3 - G'DAY OLD MATE - $4.75 X 4 - 2 - CASARATI - $9.62 IPSWICH - 8 1 - 9 - MAGAZINE MISS - $5.32 X 2 - 2 - TESTATIME - $5.32 3 - 4 - NEVETUS - $6.76 X 4 - 3 - TAMBO'S HEART - $6.79 RANDWICK - 4 1 - 5 - VASSAL - $4.58 2 - 4 - HUNTER JACK - $5.36 X 3 - 11 - HOLLYWOOD BARBIE - $5.42 4 - 9 - LANI GIRL - $6.36 X RANDWICK - 5 1 - 10 - DINGHU MOUNTAIN - $3.56 2 - 13 - GOLDEN SHOES - $4.14 X 3 - 6 - OH SO ADORABLE - $9.50 X 4 - 7 - GENDEBIEN - $10.07 RANDWICK - 6 1 - 14 - CIARLET - $2.63 X 2 - 12 - PASSIONFLOWER - $8.41 X 3 - 5 - KEIKOSAN - $10.20 4 - 7 - WAHNG WAH - $11.53 RANDWICK - 7 1 - 1 - FAROLITOS - $3.84 X 2 - 16 - PIRATE BEN - $5.02 X 3 - 5 - MONTAUK - $5.10 4 - 14 - TENDER - $6.64 BALLARAT - 5 1 - 2 - VIANDEN - $3.32 X 2 - 1 - FELLSPUR - $3.70 X 3 - 8 - EFFORTLESS MISS - $7.22 4 - 4 - FOUR BY FOUR - $7.83 BALLARAT - 6 1 - 2 - CHASE THE HORIZON - $2.62 X 2 - 3 - CHARLIE GARCON - $4.35 3 - 10 - SHADOWBROOK LASS - $5.21 X 4 - 4 - THE CARD PLAYERS - $6.33 BALLARAT - 7 1 - 5 - ROCKETS RED GLARE - $2.90 X 2 - 7 - GOD FORBID - $4.77 X 3 - 1 - JARRAH TWIST - $5.98 4 - 9 - PRINCE TARKEIDA - $6.57 BALLARAT - 8 1 - 8 - HESHIMA - $3.76 X 2 - 4 - BETTER LAND - $3.90 3 - 3 - NAME THE DAY - $4.44 X 4 - 6 - DECOUPEZ - $6.99 MURRAY BRIDGE - 4 1 - 4 - JOCKS GLEN - $3.40 X 2 - 5 - ROD'S OPINION - $3.48 X 3 - 3 - UMALUKA - $3.78 4 - 2 - NOT A ZERPRISE - $4.80 MURRAY BRIDGE - 5 1 - 5 - KOSMOS TERCEDES - $3.75 X 2 - 3 - THE OTHER GUY - $3.88 3 - 1 - WISE JOURNEY - $4.05 X 4 - 2 - WHERE'S TIM - $4.80 MURRAY BRIDGE - 6 1 - 2 - COOL TARGET - $2.77 X 2 - 4 - MR LAMBORGHINI - $3.99 X 3 - 1 - EXALTED LIGHTNING - $7.15 4 - 9 - FLYING SKIPPER - $11.44 MURRAY BRIDGE - 7 1 - 3 - SHELBY APPLES - $2.33 X 2 - 1 - GEORDIE'S SECOND - $4.25 X 3 - 4 - CRYSTAL MOMENT - $5.11 4 - 2 - GALRIGUEZ - $9.51 MURRAY BRIDGE - 8 1 - 8 - MANHATTAN MELODY - $4.72 2 - 2 - WISE AND HAPPY - $5.17 X 3 - 3 - ALITAKA - $5.24 X 4 - 6 - BELEAGUER - $5.81 BELMONT - 2 1 - 1 - PARIS OF TROY - $3.97 X 2 - 5 - BORDER SCOT - $4.42 3 - 2 - SECRET ASSAULT - $5.28 4 - 7 - TIRRENO - $5.58 X BELMONT - 5 1 - 3 - LOW FLYING - $4.82 X 2 - 2 - WINZA MOMENT - $6.08 X 3 - 4 - RIPPER RIO - $6.54 4 - 8 - LE SCHILLER - $7.70 BELMONT - 6 1 - 8 - RULING ANGEL - $5.38 X 2 - 2 - ASSURANCE - $5.78 3 - 3 - CYBERPUNK - $6.28 X 4 - 1 - FLYING IMAGE - $7.62 |
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