Well I'm glad that some of you are getting somewhere, I guess this time of year will suit some methods and not others. I agree that in general the higher class horses run truer to form but they also have that "champion" or never-say-die quality to some degree that can throw up some suprising (and enthralling) results. Unfortunatley it's a very hard quality to quantify.
I went to the Melbourne Cup a few years ago (gotta do it once) and thought that for the hell of it I'd have a bet on every race of the card. Undoubtably the worst days punting ever.....but that is a very uneven card and not indicative of the rest of the carnival.
Anyway, thanks for the input, I'll follow the spring racing tipping comp from the sidelines!