Well it looks like the "Curse of the Propun Forum" has hit Bert. Result for the day was very disappointing with a loss of $1150

For those who did not get the trial today I have listed all the selections below along with the bet amount as specified by the spreadsheet, dividend (UNITAB as this is the one that Bert quotes on his website) and running total. The rules of the system say only bet if selection is over $4.00 so I have listed the Unitab approximate for each selection - this price was taken from the Sky TV coverage (if under $10 on meetings with SKY) or from the Internet on early Belmont races or where price was over $10 (to get accurate price). The price was from as close to the jump as possible whilst still allowing time to bet on Unitab. The bet amount is taken from the spreadsheet (rounding up as per the rules) and my "target" for the day was a $5 profit (assuming a bank of $1000). If div approx was less than $4 at jump then no bet (but I have still listed the selections and any divs). Betting was win-only so I have not listed any place divs (weren't that many anyway).

Race	Sel($ )	Bet	Div	Total
SR1	3 ( 5.9)	2	0.0	-2
MR1	6 (18.1)	1	0.0	-3
BR1	1 ( 1.7)	0	1.7	-3
AR1	2 ( 1.3)	0	0.0	-3
SR2	6 (13.2)	1	0.0	-4
MR2	4 ( 3.7)	0	3.2	-4
BR2	2 ( 7.9)	2	0.0	-6
BR2	11 ( scr)	**	**	**
AR2	2 ( 1.4)	0	0.0	-6
AR2	5 ( 6.9)	2	0.0	-8
SR3	8 (18.4)	1	0.0	-9
MR3	19 (14.5)	2	0.0	-11
BR3	1 ( 7.6)	3	0.0	-14
BR3	3 ( 6.7)	4	0.0	-18
AR3	2 ( 4.2)	8	0.0	-26
SR4	1 ( 4.4)	10	0.0	-36
MR4	No Selection	**	**	**
BR4	2 ( 5.3)	10	0.0	-46
AR4	3 ( 4.0)	0	0.0	-46
AR4	5 ( 3.1)	0	0.0	-46
PR1	4 ( 6.6)	10	0.0	-56
SR5	5 (13.5)	5	0.0	-61
MR5	6*( 4.2)	21	0.0	-82
BR5	2 (15.8)	6	0.0	-88
AR5	5*( 4.7)	26	0.0	-114
PR2	11 ( scr)	**	**	**
SR6	5 ( 8.1)	17	0.0	-131
MR6	2 ( scr)	**	**	**
BR6	3*( scr)	**	**	**
AR6	3 ( 5.2)	33	0.0	-164
PR3	1 ( 3.7)	0	4.2	-164
SR7	1 (24.8)	8	0.0	-172
MR7	2*(11.7)	17	0.0	-189
BR7	3 (12.4)	18	0.0	-207
AR7	1 ( 3.5)	0	0.0	-207
AR7	7 ( 6.7)	38	0.0	-245
PR4	1*( 3.5)	0	0.0	-245
PR4	4 ( 5.7)	54	0.0	-299
SR8	2*(10.4)	33	0.0	-332
SR8	4 ( 3.4)	0	3.5	-332
MR8	2*( 6.7)	60	0.0	-392
MR8	6 ( 3.9)	0	0.0	-392
BR8	1*( 2.5)	0	2.4	-392
AR8	3 ( 3.1)	0	2.9	-392
PR5	5 ( 4.5)	114	0.0	-506
PR6	2 ( 5.3)	119	0.0	-625
PR6	4 ( 4.5)	180	0.0	-805
PR7	4*( 5.5)	180	0.0	-985
PR8	2 ( 7.0)	165	0.0	-1150

* indicates a UBUTEE selection

As you can see the selections were pretty disappointing with only a few short-priced winners getting home (all ruled out by the $4 rule).

The only questionable call in the betting was with Belmont Race 3 - as there was no sky coverage of this race I was relying on the radio coverage and the internet odds to decide whether I would have placed a bet. At jump time the internet (UNITAB) was showing 3.70 so no bet under the rules of the system (it was slightly over $4 on NSW but as I was simulating betting with Unitab that did not apply).

I think this demonstrates the great danger in a "target" betting system (or a loss-chasing staking system) as the bet size and loss you make starts to escalate rapidly if you do have an extended run of outs like Bert had today.

Certainly on today's results the selections do not look like they are worth the price being charged and the system itself (ie. target betting) can easily be applied to your own selections if you really wanted to but I would only do it if your selections make a profit at level stakes. I think Bert has just been lucky to not hit a run like this previously (actually looking at his results he did have a wipeout on his grey/trots last month and there was also another day when the last bet of the day saved him from another big wipeout).



[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:29 ]

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:30 ]

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:31 ]