Somewhat sadly, I don't have records going back far enough to verify my little system for picking the Melb Cup Trifecta. Any feedback from Forummers that have more data would be greatly appreciated.

I've always suspected that the most lightly raced runner in the market has the best chance in the Melbourne Cup, but I can't find anywhere on the Net these records. Finding the fields - no problem, but the age and sex and no of starts of each runner? Impossible.

That's theory one, which can easily be debunked I guess.

Theory two, is that entires don't like passing mares at the best of times, and never when the mares are on heat. Too many mares in the Melb Cup and too great one or more has the hots. Reckon they'd rather stay back and sniff around. OK, unorthodox theory - maybe.

So, theory test? Firstly, divide starts by age and rank field accordingly. Then eliminate entires, and last year the selections would have been Makybe Diva, She's Archie, Zagalia and Jardine's Lookout.

Hindsight's such a wonderful thing!!

The only other year I have these stats for is 2001. This same formula yielded Maythehorse, Ethereal,Persian Punch and Karasi. The result was Ethereal, Maythehorse and Karasi.

Does anyone have the results for other years to test?

Might be a system here?? Might be rubbish, and retrofit.

I recall that Vintage Crop would have rated 1st on the lightly raced factor. Kingston Rule probably would have as well. But, my records are lousy. Memory, which is sadly lacking.

Gut feeling? Well, as any of the serious punters on the forum know well, that'll only lead to a bad stomach ache!!!

Any further stats re Melb Cup would be greatly appreciated. Such an enormous pool for us forummers to get our teeth into!!!!!