Yes it is still the smart bet. I have no problem with you backing the short odds runner if you have properly assessed the winning chances and have a minimum price you will accept. Blindly backing it no matter what the price is a sure way to lose money because you have already acknowledged (and seen) that "sure things" can be beaten. Lets say you assess the horse as a 70% chance (personally I doubt either horse yesterday was any more than 50% chance and Rubitano probably less than than) - then you should say the horse has 70% chance of winning so don't accept anything less than $1.70 (got to aim for at least 15-20% profit to allow for errors and price changes).

Lets say you don't put a minimum price and in a year you get 10 70% chances to bet on and your average price is $1.40 - In those same 10 races I bet on the 10% chances that are paying $21.00 (20:1). At the end of the year you have won seven times but I have only won once - I guess you are the more aggressive and therefore more successful punter? Problem is when you look at your account you have spent $1000 and only won $980 ($100 on each bet) - I have spent $1000 and won $2100.

Personally I think the key component of being successful in this game is INTELLIGENCE - agression usually clouds your judgement and leads to irrational bets instead of smart bets. Hey but that's just my opinion.

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson