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![]() I am a firm believer in keeping my eye out for little edges that improve my bottom line wherever I can find them and then embracing them long term if they prove their worth.
As punters, beyond trying to hone our selection ability [and all that's involved there] and our money management skills, looking for an edge often stops at finding what we perceive as betting 'overlays'. The more serious and self controlled punters without a scattergun betting approach, usually drop the maidens and 2yr. old races and leave the wet tracks alone also. Beyond that, progress toward improving our chances often stops and concentrates on selection. For approx. the last year I have dropped any race under 1400m as well as my usual F&M, Cups, Hurdles and Stakes races as generally poor value betting propositions [though I do have interest bets in all the major group races] and have dramatically improved my punting performance since doing so. The problem will all sprint races is that they can be won by unfit horses and they often are. An unfit horse [even you and I] can sprint over a short distance but knock up very quickly beyond that. For horses[not us] that would include a lot of races up to 1200m and often even 1300m. This adds a layer of selection hardship that just does not exist in middle distance races. The blanket finish of many of these sprint races is due to fitness not necessarily being the major winning factor, especially in 1000m. races [and look at how many of those we have at meetings now. Their numbers have spawned like the plague over the last 20yrs.]. The advantage of middle distance races is that by being able to work out fairly easily, the fit [at least 3/4 starts in] from the unfit, before applying any other selection criteria, gives us an added edge as the last thing we need is a surprise sprint from a runner ruining our winning chances. Relying on a selection in the [often] blanket finish of a sprint, where a nose might be all that's between a cab home from the races and the pie stall and bus stop, just doesn't make rational punting sense to me. Last edited by crash : 8th February 2005 at 11:48 AM. |
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