How often do we hear the claim: 'I just back the 'overlays' and easily stay ahead of the game'. Of course the claimant never goes on to tell you exactly how they 'spot' these overlays, that seem to be all over the race meeting but for their [shrewd] eyes only !!

Deciding if a runner is overvalue has very little science in it and has more to do with art and experience of a lot of practise creating your own betting line on the 3/5 best chances in a race and then only excepting prices above your own price for any particular runner. How do punters who never do a price line, spot a 'genuine' overlay ? Gut feeling ?

Without going on here to describing just how to do your own price line [and then expecting you to practise it for six months before betting with it], below is a very simple method for having a good idea as to what is good or very poor value odds offered for any runner.

Don't be surprised at just how few overlays are actually present on any given race day [especially Sat.], but yes they do exist but just not in the numbers that many punters would love to believe.

Method:
Work out the top 5 fancied runners for the race you are interested in [the top 5 in the p/post market from your newspaper is as good as any other method or pick your own method]. Now if you are a win bet man, have a look at each runner's win SR. If it is close to 33% that means a 1 in 3 win rate. Any price over $4 becomes value. If the SR is 25% any price above $5 becomes value. Get the idea ? It is simplicity itself. The same methodology can be applied for those interested in the place bet by looking at the place SR.

The above method might sound too simple, but lets remember here that any runner's 'actual' odds of winning a race can never be more than an educated guess and the simple method I have described at least gives a very good idea of value, and gets any punter thinking about value [very important] rather than 'gut feeling' it before placing a bet. This method probably has as much, if not more real relevance to price than any other method, as at least the runner's SR is set in stone. Don't worry too much about zeroing in to bet one particular runner [you like], but think of the runner offering the best price, as the object of the game is not to win every battle but to win the war !!

Good Punting.