This is a bold, bold prediction... but we'll see how it holds up. I don't think M Schumacher will win the F1 Drivers Championship this year. I don't even think Ferrari will win the constructors championship.

With Schuey @ 1.45 to win the campionship you can see why I'm on a limb here with that statement. But I have reasons. IMO the component of an F1 car that makes the biggest difference is the tyres. Last year Bridgestone had by far the better tyre. They also had the best car, and best driver, but they had that in 2003 and in that year M Schumacher won the championship by a mere 2 points or something. Last year they were virtually unbeatable.

Ferrari are the only big testing team running Bridgestone - all the others run Michelin - and as a consequence Bridgestone have only done about 15,000km tyre testing so far this year. Michelin have done about 80,000km. That's a big difference.

This weeks testing in Barcelona is not finished yet, but to date Ferrari havn't set any unbelievable blistering times. Assumimg they don't then I think they'll likely measure up even, or slightly behind the pace of the front runners McLaren and Renault (Williams so far a little off the pace unfortunately for Webber fans). Unsure about BAR.

So, who to back? Well, I've plummed for Reikkonen in the McLaren @ $8.00. But you could easily justify any McLaren or Renault driver at this stage.

Schumacher and Ferrari *wont* win in Melbourne but will likely get very fast for the European races when they get their new car. So if you do want to back the Schu I would suggest waiting 2 or 3 races - the odds will get better.

So, there you go ladies and gentlemen. My balls are well and truly out there. Mind your step.