3rd September 2002, 10:29 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bendigo
Posts: 236
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Good post, Fryingpan. I'm interested in the QTAB ratings, and in Bhagwan's crappy horse system. I like the filters you suggest. I'II give it a try. Plenty of crappy races around during the week to try it on.
Increasingly I'm thinking 180 deg. to what I used to think. I used to think the name of the game was finding quality horses to bet on. But EVERYONE is trying to find quality horses to bet on, so if you find quality horses it is really hard to make a profit long term unless you are that bit better than everyone else. (I'm not.)
I've been making a (small) profit on long shots and crappy horses lately. Its much more satisfying.
I realised that there are two sides to every statistic. If 30% of favourites win, that means that 70% don't. If 87% or so of winners have QTAB ratings of 93-100, then 13% of winners have ratings of 92 or less - there might be an opportunity in that 13%.
Keep us posted on how you do with this, Fryingpan. I'm interested. There might be a race or two suitable at Sale today so I'II give it a try.
Hermes
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