Universal Prince is a HUGE risk in a race like the Melbourne Cup. He will drop out to near last as is his usual pattern. This means either of two things has to happen:

A) Sheehan needs to weave a run through a field of 23 other horses, half of which are coming backwards because they're spent, The others looking for a gap themselves.

B) He goes around the outside of 23 other horses which means at some stage he'll probably be travelling 10 or 12 wide.

I'm not saying the horse can't or won't win but anyone who takes 2's or even 3's about a horse counting on so many breaks has got rocks in their head. Remember the Rosehill Guineas (I think it was) when he started odds on? Sheehan was canned for his ride that day. Think about what can happen in a field of 24 and don't take anything less than 5 or 6/1.