This is to help those punters who can't seem to fathom Sunline, Defier, Lonhro, Victory Vein & Co getting beaten.

I was always supicious of this, so now I am posting an exhaustive analysis of Group 1 winners (took me 2 days to get and process all the data).

1. I put every Group 1 winning horse through my selection filters (which I can't divulge because I use these filters regularly.)
Let's just say the filters eliminate at least 50% losing bets whilst retaining profits .

2. Group 1 winning horses are nearly always under their true odds when they do win.

Going back as far as November 1998 there were 256 qualifying selections.
Of these only 75 subsequently won.

That's 29.29% strike rate, not too bad.

HERE'S THE CRUNCHER...

The average win dividend was only $3.29.

Numerous odds on favourites with only a couple of winners over $10.00.

This represents a 3.635% Loss On Turnover.

Not much, but remember - this was AFTER I applied filters which eliminated numerous losing bets.

I came to the conclusion that no further filters could be applied to ensure keeping the winners as well.

The only way to make this a winning proposition would be to back the horses over the average price, but then this would eliminate as much as 50% of the bets and you would be backing them only a couple of times a year.

Just some info everyone might find useful.

I would recommend finding something at decent odds to beat them. They will get beaten, it's just a matter of time.

This analysis included Sunline, Ha Ha and Tie The Knot!



[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-06 22:27 ]