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![]() I'm going to start with a clean slate in my punting ventures from today.
And this is my story. I suppose the biggest question that needs to be answered is WHY GAMBLE?. Seems a bit like "Why have sex when you don't wish to procreate?". IT FEELS GOOD WHEN YOU'RE DOING IT. Especially the bit at the end. Unfortunately for me,the bit at the end comes in dribs and drabs rather than a full blown flood.Punting wise I mean!.Actually,come to think of it...? So after 30 years or so of tackling punting,I'm going to try a new assault on the thoroughbreds.Punting wise I mean. And I shall look at the bit at the end and attempt to increase the amount and frequency of the output. How?.By going over my predictions and trying to modify my methods rather than the same old,same old. First attempt will be by giving each horse in a race a percentage point relative to its perceived chances.Nothing new there.But where I hope to get productive is in the price I'm willing to accept. It seems those professional raters back every horse at 20% more price available than their prediction.I am going to use a sliding scale. I will take 87% on a perceived 100% chance.Or $1.15 is my lowest possibly acceptable price. 38% will do me on a 50% chance.Or 13-8 will do me on an assessed even money chance. 20% needs 11%.Or 8 to 1 about a 4 to 1 chance. 10% chance needs 4%.Or 25-1 about a 9-1 shot. And $80 needed on a perceived $20 chance. This will keep me away from the rougher selections which hardly ever win and keep more interest in the shorter ones only.Got to keep those satisfying end bits coming. Anyway it all boils down to,"Hey dudes,look at me..". Stay tuned. |
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