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How much extra profit can you generate by focusing on getting the best price? A whole lot!
As I do at regular intervals, I recently completed a review of my own selections, bets and results. Something which I thought was worthwhile sharing is the importance of working hard to get the best possible price for your selections. Each persons betting and results are different, but based on my own betting for this calendar year I have generated an extra 12% profit on turnover purely through the price I have obtained for my bets against the official starting price (SP). The difference has meant an actual increase in profit dollards of just over 30% to what I would have otherwise obtained if betting at SP. As a matter of interest, taking Mark Reads Divi+ for all of my bets would have resulted in an extra 2.9% profit on turnover compared to SP. These figures are consistent with the difference in my results for the 2001 calendar year. When I look at these results I just can't understand why some people continue to only bet with the tote or simply not put any effort into getting a better price for themselves. There is extra profit there for the taking and the 12% difference in POT I experienced could no doubt be the difference for many between winning and losing. So if you only bet on the tote at the moment and manage to lose a few percent, you could cut your losses or even turn the same set of selections into a profit by doing the work to get a better price. My own records are littered with major profit improvements from individual selections...some of the recent ones are: Bulla Borghese $16.15 div + against SP of $13....Crop $15 with my phone bookmaker against SP of $13..the top fluctuation was $17 which I missed....Mizz Zoe $10 taken on course, firmed to start at $6....Clay Shaker available early afternoon at $7 on Mark Reads site, firmed to start at $3.50 on track. The list goes on. This is not intended to highlight my own betting exploits but to point out how much you can cut your losses by or how much extra profit you can make by establishing a number of different betting options for yourself. Personally, I have an account with 3 online bookmakers and a phone account with an on-course bookmaker who provides me with top fluctuation for all bets placed within a couple of minutes after the first call of opening odds (no win commission). My own routine is that firstly I check prices posted by the various on-line bookmakers at about 11:30am to see if there is anything that stands out as exceptional value which might disappear later on. If there is I will bet straight away and take whats on offer. If I have some uncertainty, I may outlay half of my stake at this time and wait to see what happens later. On some occassions I think the price is excellent value and take it, only to see it get longer later on...thats how it goes. Overall though I am well in front on these type of decisions. If I am attending the track that day I will leave after I have checked the early on-line odds, then wait for each race and hunt around for the best price on course. If you are on course, you will often get better than even the official top fluctuation registered. Again its all extra profit with exactly the same set of selections. If at home for the day I wait for the opening of each race and after the first call of odds, make an assessment of firstly whether my horse is or likely to be value and whether I think it would be best to take top fluctuation with my on course bookmaker or wait to see what the Divi+ and fixed odds do with on-line bookmakers. You would be amazed at the variation in prices that exist between the main on-line bookmakers. One of the challenges with this approach is that when it's a close call as to whether my horse will get to the value price I am seeking. Sometimes it may open a little shorter and I have to make a call whether I think top fluct will creep out to at least equal my price. Sometimes you make the wrong call, but thats life. With time and experience you get better at making those decisions. If I am heavily supporting a horse I know is going to be the favourite or even 2nd favourite, 9 times out of 10 I am better off to take the top fluctuation. If the horse I am going to support is greater that $6-$7 and there hasn't been mentioned much in the early morning press and media, then experience tells that at least one of the totes will pay better than market odds available which makes Divi+ the best option. The fact that I need to make some split second decisions about which betting path to take means that it's impossible to always get the absolute best price...sometimes I pull the right reign and other times the wrong one. However even with my win some / lose some decision making record, the profit above and beyond a single source betting approach is huge. Personally I think anyone who doesn't broaden their betting options like this is mad. For the sake of setting up a few accounts and spending a bit of effort hunting around you can significantly improve your results. This cream on the cake is the easiest money you will make in racing. It's certainly easier than improving your strike rate or average winning price by a few points. I hope my own experiences are of use to some of you and I would be interested if anyone else has some thoughts on this topic from their own betting experience? [ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2002-11-12 13:24 ] |
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