Mr J has summed up my thoughts on all this. I will not bet on statistical certainties unless there is an accompanying explaination of what CAUSES the certainty. And even then, NOT if they're favourites. This type of thing (identifying apparent "trends" after the event) is the whole basis of charlatan system sellers isn't it?? This is in no way to infer that anyone here is one of them!!!
My old aunt Gussy assures me that the Bowen Cup (where's that??) is ALWAYS won by a grey horse whose jockey wears a pink cap. Checking this out, let's say I discover it to be true for the past ten years. Question; should I take Grey Lightening at ANY ODDS since HIS hoop does indeed wear a pink cap? Maybe....
If it turns out that every horse is grey (ie it's GREYS ONLY) AND the best trainer has pink caps on his three entries VERY MAYBE!! Regardless, I will consider the others AND THE PRICES
Likewise, if Roddick has a 100% record against Ginepri (6-0; 5 in straight sets;the only set dropped IN THE VERY FIRST ENCOUNTER,5 years ago before Roddick became "a star"...he's unbeatable!!!!) Should I have taken the $12 available on Ginepri turning it around last week in the RCA Tourney. Or was $1.05 justified and just "money for jam" on Andy?? Well, I reckon the $1200 FEELS better than the lost $100 on THAT "statistical certainty". Of course,as with Sth Africa, if some bookie offerred reversed odds I would snap them up EVERY TIME.
When Australia 2 was 3-1 down in 1983 and no-one had rolled the yanks in 122 years should I have put my hundred on the Americans at 100-1 ON? Please advise me!!! Well? Or what about Thorpie at 500-1 ON to qualify in the trials of the 400m last year? OR (we won't mention $1.12 for Paris as the Olympic City) as Steven Bradbury rounds the bend in last place at the Winter Olympics should I have snapped up the 200-1 against EVERYONE FALLING OVER (except him, of course)..
Anyway, I hope everyone appreciates that I am not pooh-poohing the concept of some things being MUCH MORE PROBABLE than others but, rather, adding the "price" qualifier to "the stats".Cheers.
P.S. What did you do with Roddick, K909? Could Hewitt be the next Ginepri when he takes on Federer in New York???