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Old 8th August 2005, 08:02 PM
john spencer john spencer is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 16
Thumbs up How do you determine value ?

Desi posed the question earlier as to " how do you determine value ?" . The answer is probably much like the perennial question of how long is a piece of string. There is no correct answer only personal preference.

In short though,value determines wherther or not you will make a profit over the long term . If you consistently back $2.50 runners and only win 33% of the time you will make a loss. If you invest the same money on $4 runners which you have assessed at $2.50 and you are right 33% of the time you will make a profit.The art is in identifying runners that are otherwise not considered winning chances by the general public. One must identify runners whose odds are not diluted due to mass media exposure, sky flashers, late mail tips on the radio etc .

Another method is to use work out the percentage chance of your horse and multiplying this by the decimal percentage odds of each horse. Where i have rated a horse showing $4.00 in the pre race market at 100 % ( or points) I invest 25 units ( 100% x 100/$4.00) whereas if I rate the same horse at 90 points I wager 22.50 units ( 90% x 100/$4.00) and so on. Hope this helps anyway.

John

Last edited by Moderator 3 : 11th September 2005 at 09:55 AM.
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