9th September 2005, 03:46 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shaun
Dale
Thats the best way to test a system unless you have an extensive data base that way you are not only testing the rules but you are also testing how it handles at different times of the year with different classes of horses and different weather patterns
I can't remember who first printed this so i can't provide credit.
System testing with no data base
1. First sample = 150 recent races (or bets) If this shows miserable results, forget it. If it gets near to break even or pays POT continue. This sample will include at least one period of three consequitive days.
2. Second sample = 100 races from the same season in previous years (not recent races) but with NO consequitive days. If its near to break even or in POT, continue.
3. Third sample = 100 random races from all seasons trying only one or two races per day from here and there. If its near to break even or in POT, continue. A system MUST pass this test. (If you only sample consequitive days you can hit distorting cycles and mini-cycles. You have to sample against this phenomenon.)
etc etc
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Shaun i totaly agree with these rules and have done much the same myself when starting off researching a new system but my point was that at some time or other one must test it day after day for a decent length of time to make sure that the results can stand up.
Wesmp1 why not as someone else suggested start with a small bank and add to your fun whilst you test this system on current races,you mightn win but the thrill of the chase would be worth $50 to $100 in my book.
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