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#1
20th September 2005, 02:20 PM
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Laying Older Handicappers
In any 4YO+ handicap races, lay the pre-post favourite unless it won its last race.
Where there are equal pre-post favourites there is no bet regardless of whether any of them won last time out.
System applies to flat races only.
The recommended staking plan is that you lay at the pre-post price to a liability of one point for every consecutive race the selection has lost.
For example, if the pre-post favourite is 5/2 and is on a losing run of 20 then the potential gain is 8 points (20 divided by 2.5) and the potential liability is 20 points.
The website http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/ comments: "The most unreliable type of race for favourite backers is a handicap for older horses. These runners often struggle to maintain a consistent level of form and are unlikely to be on the upgrade. They are often struggling on handicap marks which, because of earlier career successes, are too high for them.
"The longer the losing sequence a horse is on the more difficult it tends to be for its trainer to find a winning opportunity, especially if a string of placed efforts means that the handicapper hasn't relinquished his grip. Potential liabilities are therefore in line with the horse's current losing sequence."
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