It's not about knowing when to bet, quite often it's about knowing when NOT to bet.

Dolphin Dance opened at even money in the last at Flemington on Saturday.

The horse was clearly the best runner in an ordinary field but had to carry 58kg which, even if it isn't that far above the lowest weighted horse (55kg) is still a fair weight.

Add to this a nasty barrier (10 of 11) and there were clearly risks.

Even money was ridiculous but I was still keen to back the horse so I set a minimum price of 3/1 which I never got. (Fluctuations were 2.00, 3.50, 3.20)

Dolphin Dance was beaten a head on the line after working hard early to get across from its barrier.

It doesn't happen all the time and it takes discipline (like you wouldn't believe) but it does reinforce the absolute importance of setting a realistic price and sticking to it.

It's the only way to beat the bookies long term.

Value is always the key.