Hi Bhagwan,

You've got me interested in testing your theory. Here is a list of the top 2 media selections at MV today from the Herald Sun. Morning prices are in brackets.

R1 - No.1 ($3) No.2 ($4)
R2 - No.1 ($1.80) No.2 ($5.50)
R3 - No.3 ($2.25) No.1 ($4.60)
R4 - No.2 ($3) No.1 ($3)
R5 - No.2 ($4.60) No.1($4.60)
R6 - No.5 ($3.50) No.4 ($5)
R7 - No.3 ($3.30) No.2 ($3.80)
R8 - No.6 (4.60) No.1 ($2.80)

Average price $3.70 and not enough to make a profit assuming a 45% strike rate.

Betting on every race is extremely risky, so if I were to narrow things down I'd probably do the following:

Eliminate 2yo and 3yo races (too many unraced runners, high risk) - that means races 1,3 and 4 are out.

Eliminate races with fields of less than 9 runners (unpredictable and often throw up a short priced false favourite) - that means race 3 is out.

So, we're left with races 5,6,7 & 8 and already our av price is up to $4.

MV is a specialist's track so of the remaining runners who have won at MV we are left with 6: R5(2,1) R6(4,5) R7(2) R8(6) Av price $4.35

I would be looking to narrow things down even further closer to race time (eg. I wouldn't be backing anything for less than $4) but we'll keep it at these 6 and see how things go. I won't be betting on these, just watching.

What do you think?