
25th October 2005, 08:27 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 52
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Framing Dog Market
I was looking at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6234
and I noticed 2 different methods to get odds for dogs based on average time. One was a rating method and the second was using monte carlo analysis. I decided to make an automated excel spreadsheet which when after entering the dog's names in a race. I click a button and will grab the career data of every dog in the race from GRV and give me a dogs career avg mps (Meters per second) and the standard deviation. Then I added another function which would simulate 20000 races and the results would appear on the sheet in about 2 minutes. This would give me a second set of odds and I believe that the monte carlo analysis is more accurate than the 1st rating method using 100*(0.94^hundreths of a second behind winner).
I created the spreadsheet inside 2 hours and if anyone is interested just e-mail me with a request.
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