Every Topic,
Fascinating post. It raises for me a question I've had for some time, and a conflict I can't resolve. You're saying (quite correctly) that the betting is determined by the overall weight of opinion, and that weight of opinion is a good guide. And yet in your example the market is created by information not readily obvious in the formguides. OK,then where is this coming from? When you say,...why would any of us go to many hours of agonising effort to pick winners when the work is done for us by people with a greater level of knowledge and information... well who are these people? Are you saying that ultimately the market is formed by a few with some inside information, and then the herd follows along? ... But then, there's lots of insiders, often with conflicting information.

And even if these insiders bet big, is that enough against the mass of opinion based only on formguide info available to all? Please, help me out here.
Cheers,
shoto

ya got my attention shoto i wont be able to sleep tonight

Be Careful,
I bet solely on my own ratings and rarely have a losing day.While I understand that everyone has different ideas, I think I am doing ok winning 9 weeks in 10 and would never change my betting ideas.
My basis is to completely ignore jockeys,trainers, barriers, track bias etc. which are the 4 things most punters use to come to their selections.
The important things are weight, distance, strength of the opposition.
I have given my ratings to mates of mine and they have lost week after week with them while I have been winning which shows that some people win, some don't.Their excuse is just doing the wrong thing.
While it is true that more favs win than 2nd favs down the line, I can't agree with the idea of backing horses under $3.I back 2 or 3 horses per race and would never consider backing under $3.
After 50 years punting I have never seen 1 punter who can win over a long period of time backing 1 horse per race or taking short prices.
Punters are always looking for some magical secret of success.There is only 1 secret , reasonable selections and methodical and sensible betting.
While people will completely disagree with me I'm winning, are they ??

thanks the late mail you made my day

Late Mail,

I know of at least 1 who makes a nice living with only a few bets per WEEK - of course I am not sure that I could ever be comfortable betting the amount he does on a single selection - but the point is it can be done. I know several people (myself included) who do make a profit and who mainly bet on short priced horses - almost all my recent selections have started under $3.

Everyone has different ideas - I certainly know a few successful punters who recommend never backing more than 1 runner per race whilst you have the oppposite opinion - doesn't make either one right! One thing I have noticed, though, is that people who are willing to look at new ideas with an open mind are more successful in the long run than those who say "I would never change my ideas" - the world is constantly changing so being open to new ideas is a necessity if you don't want to be left behind!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

mmmmm, GREAT stuff! I agree with almost EVERONE! I'm showing a profit from just about every angle sited here, albeit in the short term (so far)

Agreed. Great stuff!!

Sometimes you have to wonder what chance you have. Just went back and had a look at last Sunday's results.

Using the NSWTab I figured out that 570 horses ran at 6 tracks. Return for $1.00 per horse? $578.80. So there's a free system for anyone!!!!

I guess the moral is keep clear of Sundays. There were --- and there often are --- many 'outsider' results that no-one could pick. Someone once said to me that Sunday racing is dangerous --- it so often depends on how long the horse's milk run had been that morning :roll:

[ This Message was edited by: Merriguy on 2003-09-03 07:29 ]

I think the answer to the riddle posed by Shoto is contained in part right here.

Everybody's system of selecting winners adds an onion skin to the onion that we lable the "mug punters money". That money creates a "whole view" and a combined selection system that is more often right than wrong and is probably better than any one system by itself. Like it or not we are all collectively part of that whole and can not exclude ourselves from it. The "me" and "them" is a myth, for without "me" there is no "them".

We see this "onion skin" of opinion [or form study] working daily in many areas of life. Best car? Best Camera? safest boat? All public opinion from many deverse areas of experiencing the product [and that includes the product, punting], leading to a whole answer more often right than wrong.

But boy, when we get it wrong, do we get it wrong!

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-03 07:46 ]

ok, I'll try to rattle off a few replies all in one :smile:

xanadu, howdy - yes I did say racing, thoroughbreds especially, is boring.
What I meant was that the general format is boring. Nearly every race club of all the codes is struggling and yet they produce the same old crap every week. Nearly every race is completely meaningless. Racing is a huge industry yet it gets barely a mention in the papers.
Its badly organised, and in very serious need of innovative ideas - including inovation in race formats and types.
I will post on this subject another day.

kenchar - fingers??? I type with my toes, the fingers are for scratching my rapidly balding head :smile:

shoto - the winner of the example I provided was number 1, it paid $1.90 and was $4 shorter than the next horse. Impossible to pick from the form but obviously there were other factors known to the racing industry. In smaller betting markets the local knowledge will be critical to the price, I think this is especially so in trots.

late mail - what I have come to realise is that I am not the only person looking at the data, and there are others with more information than us who are also analysing the data.So why should I double up on their efforts?? sometimes, however, the weight of money is emotional - that is what you need to be on the look out for and this is often mentioned by the race caller or analyst on tv.

the favourite places something like 60+% of the time. I assume they just miss the place about 10% and I imagine for about 10% of the time they suffer an unpredictable bit of bad luck - interfered with, fall, blocked for a run etc..
thats a total of over 80%.
If you take out the number of times a horse just doesnt feel like running, has a gut ache, has the hots for the horse in barrier 2 etc...
then the amount of time the weight of money is actually wrong is very slim.

as BC said, its all about keeping an open mind and this is just one of those areas that presents interesting opportunities.
Nobody is suggesting betting on every race, but if one is looking for a low risk bet and is not greedy then seeking out favourites is a reasonable approach.

Merriguy - many a promising angle has come to grief when Sunday racing comes around.
must be donkey day :smile:

well boys and girls, the point of the exercise is to think and be broad minded and consider ideas. Everybody has a different way of doing things and nobody is more right or wrong.
Its just interesting to exchange ideas and try new angles.

see ya
Every Topic

well boys and girls, the point of the exercise is to think and be broad minded and consider ideas. Everybody has a different way of doing things and nobody is more right or wrong.
Its just interesting to exchange ideas and try new angles.

SPOT ON !!!

















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