#1
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recently a discusion on barriers came up.
i know one swallow doesnt make a summer but yesterday at belmont ( a track that i think gives insiders a help) i had kaprats top selection from barrier one and kentiara 2nd top from barrier 19 (top was lady go bello from 17)(different races of course ) kaprats won and kentiara ran last) co-incidence???? i still like inside barriers regardless of the stats (unless moonee valley of course) |
#2
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Anyone backing outside barriers hasn't been punting long enough to know better and I don't care if the stats. show it's almost a level playing field. The most winners still come from leaders and on pacers and the fence is always the shortest way to the winning post. Cheers. |
#3
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Lets look at the stats for Saturday meetings (all venues) for this year. You will notice:
1. Barrier 1 has produced 335 winners but barrier 14 only 83. Case closed I hear you shout! BUT inside barriers are used a lot more than outside ones. For example every race has a horse starting from 1, 2 or 3 but only about a third of races run have a starter from 14. In the sample we had 3113 starters from B1 but only 970 from B14. 2. When you adjust for the actual number of starters from each barrier there is still a bias towards the inside winning more than the outside but it is not as big as most punters believe. In this sample B1 had a strike rate of 10.7% (the highest in the sample) whilst B14 had 8%. 3. If you look at the POT then a surprising (for many people) thing shows up. Outside barriers show a much smaller loss than the inside. In this sample B1 had a loss of 20% whilst B14 actually showed a profit! If we say B1 to B10 is inner and B11 to B24 is outside (just for arguments sake) then we get: Inner Barriers (1-10) = 22% LOSS ON TURNOVER Outer Barriers (11-24) = 10% LOSS ON TURNOVER In my opinion this shows that punters place way too much emphasis on the disadvantage of outside barriers. In reality the barrier makes ************ all difference (talking in general here - obviously there are some courses/distances where an outer barrier can be a much bigger disadvantage) and the smart punter can take advantage of the fact that the herd mentality is to avoid the outer barriers so those winners will be much better value. _________________ "Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson [ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-12-08 08:23 ] |
#4
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Can't argue with your stats. Becareful and I know that overall the numbers come out almost even but I only back outside barriers [outside 9 regardless of amount of starters] if it suits the runner or it's Moonee Valley [I then ignore the inside unless it suits the runner]. For those who can't work out what suits a horse they should stick to the inside. A good Jockey is a must on the outside too. I have a little system of mine [that I am not posting here] that has a 'barrier 9 or less' rule in it. If you give me somewhere to send it you can check out with your data base how it would have gone without that rule if you like. It would be interesting to know if the rule is helping or hindering. Cheers. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-08 08:57 ] |
#5
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Becareful, I agree wholeheartedly. While it may be an advantage to start from an inside barrier, the fact is that so many punters think that way and totally ignore outside barriers. As a result, horses with outside barriers might have a lower strike rate, but they tend to produce better dividends.
[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2003-12-08 09:14 ] |
#6
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Crash,
You can email me at: racing AT tlcbc DOT com DOT au (remove the spaces and replace the obvious - just trying to avoid the dreaded spam robots). It may take me a day or two to get back to you as I have a lot of work scheduled for this week!
__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson |
#7
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Heres a plane based on backing the wider barriers .
RULES Target the TAB 1st.& 2nd. FAVS just before jump.(they tend to get up 45% of the time) Bet the wider barrier of the 2 . You may wont to add a couple of filters to this plan . E.G. Only bet Fast,Good,Dead tracks. Only bet if the final selection is paying $3.30 or more. You will see that the wider barrier does seem to dominate , it does pull a number of good winners ,7 days a week.
__________________
Cheers. |
#8
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Hi guys,
Sorry but you are fair dinkum paying for the bookies yearly holidays in ahiti and hawaii. I have done form stats for Gold coast & Sydney bookies for 30 yrs and we had statistically proved that of races with 10 runners, 70% of winners came from 1-7, When field go 12-14, barriers 1-9 provided 75% of winners, all tracks all conditions. You may say you are getting value with outside runners but guys you ask any trainer and they don't want to be wider then about 7 or 9 at most. They either have to be used up early and often have no gas left or go back and come around or through whole field. Guys have a saver on your wides but just like cricket, close to the wicket (fence ) is the way to go. |
#9
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I think that a horse if good enough with a jockey also good enough to over come it will
Brew won a Melbourne Cup from 24. Not because he had luck, but because his Jockey was good enough to get him where he had to be to win the race. Too many Jockeys think you need to go back or fight for the lead, but from the outside at most tracks you can get to where you need to be without using the horse up. on another site they have stats for each br. These will have you taken back, most horses will win from gates 4 to 6 at most tracks. There's also a paid site which has each jockeys stats from everything you can think of inc. Gates. Oliver is of cause the best. The one thing that gets me is jockeys who think they HAVE TO GO BACK! |
#10
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For all those praising outside barriers as 'value' just change 'outside barriers' to 'longshots' and you have a similar argument to the one you are collectivly using: better value and often ignored, but regularly get up. Track by track, distance by distance and horse by horse is the only way to consider o/s barriers. Failing that, ignore them [and long shots] and you will be better off in the long run. I note that Jaffa hs been on the punt for 30yrs. Almost as long as I have. I stick with my original claim that anyone backing outside barriers havn't been backing horses long enough to know better. Ask any Jockey or trainer what they think. Problem is Jaffa old son your stats are screaming : 70% come from barrier 1 to 7 in a 10 horse field. So that means the other 30% come from barriers 9 and 10 [ Meaning barriers on the G/C are even ]. Thought I better point that out because everyone ealse sure will !! Cheers. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-09 05:23 ] |
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