Hi Becareful,

Well I get your point now. I thought what you were saying was alluding to handicapping in general being a waste of time.

I have found incorporating the study of sectionals [last 600m] and overall times to 1600m with my handicapping has improved my winnings/reduced my loses. I have plenty of time and I find studying form, especially down by the lake on a sunny morning with the Sportsman and my black book, a most relaxing and enjoyable pursuit as my approach to this Sport of Kings for me anyway, has always been recreational.
Some years I am in profit others I am not.

I would hate to try and make a living from this game, but find the odd financial boosts I get as pleasant effort rewarded.

Cheers and have a good one too !!


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-24 17:32 ]

On 2003-12-24 17:27, crash wrote:

I have found incorporating the study of sectionals [last 600m] and overall times to 1600m with my handicapping has improved my winnings/reduced my loses.

Hi Crash,

could you please give me a brief rundown on how you go about this??? Sectionals is something that I've never really looked at... Are the sectional times available anywhere or do you need to work them out or what ????

Cheers,
Chris.

__________________
Permanence is an illusion

Hi Stebbo,

Sectionals are available [the last 600m I am interested in] in town and overall times everywhere naturally. I'm looking at both and using these figures [and others] to look for form improvement that during a campaign points to when a future win is imminent. This for me anyway is easier to do than to write about as Osulldj has done so eloquently in describing formline.

As an example, I think my last tip here concerned the Traralgon Cup winner Just Cris who won the 1900m. race in 1.58.01. 2nd. was Sand Belt by a neck to Aggro 2.9 lth. 3rd. I will come back to Jus Cris a bit latter. Country Cup races is one area I do note the times to distances up to 2400m as I find them consistent and a great place to pick up city wins from the place getters at good odds.

When Sand Belt next appeared at MV with the top Jockey Noel Callow on board in a rather weak 2040m open Hcp. [again on a good track] the Traralgon time held up well and I pocketed a nice 6/1 profit on his win. Aggro's next start was last Sat. at Flemington on a dead track over 2550m. for a respectable 1.9 lth. 5th. A no bet. That race I believe was to reduce weight and improve odds as the distance was all wrong for him. His next start over 1900m. to 2040m on a good track should see a nice win at good odds [you read it here first !! ]. Look out for it.

Greg Eurell is a trainer I particularly like. He places his horses well and his efforts with Just Chris [had been suffering a lung infection prior to this campaign] was a good example, improving from a C3 at Cranbourne over 2025m in 2.07.22 carrying 56kg. to a Traralgon Cup Win in three starts. The 2040m. race 2nd.up at MV saw him beaten by only 1.5 lths for 5th. carrying 55kg. in an improved time of 2.07.30 with the last 600m. run in a respectable 36.53. His next start in the Cup with only 54kg. had my money all over him. Time was 1.58.01. Out to spell now I think. You can see by the times a horse on the improve to a good odds win.

Hope this has made some sense. With handicapping there is no correct way of doing things. Personal methods just develop over years without there being a 'formula'. Some punters are mostly formline handicappers but my niche is watching horse placement, trainers, times and weights. Formline is in there but for me not as prominently as it is for Osulldj.

This time of year I don't have as much free time and tend to pull out a couple of tried and tested systems to use until after the holidays. I don't back the selections blank but do a bit of general handicapping and if they stand up it's a bet. They are doing very well at the moment with two weeks of consistent profit but they don't produce the enjoyment that straight out handicapping does. It's the intellectual challenge of playing sleuth that's attractive.

Cheers and have a good Crissy.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-25 07:44 ]

Chris,

Cyberhorse form contains sectional times (as do most others) and also the position in running at various points - BUT this information is only available for metro tracks which in my mind limits its usefullness.

Can't really understand why they dont record the sectional time for all TAB meetings these days - the equipment required is relatively simple and given they send TV broadcast trucks to all the venues it should be a simple task to have the TV guys set the equipment up each day.

Anyway so far I have not found a useful way of incorporating times into my systems because of the difficulties with no times from some venues and comparing times between other venues (different track layouts, surfaces, etc). However I do store it in my database just in case I find a way to use it effectively one day!

Hope you are having a great day!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

I think there's a few important questions that need to be asked when dealing with Time, they are How long is a Length? and How long is a race?
I personally use Time as the most important Variable.
To me, its not the distance of Todays race but the distance raced by each runner Life To Date(LTD).I use all a horses LTD formlines.
If you plot Track records by weight carried over each distance at the major tracks you can develop an accelrartion/deceleration matrix based on those Fixed Points, you'll then find the Slope/Intercept Standard, this will provide the first crosshair in pinpointing the Speed ability of each horse
The answer to the first question, in gryhound racing they assign .066 as the time for a length, but this is inacurate, think of a distance race the speed of the winner and the speed of a short sprint race winner as they cross the line, the time it takes to travel a length is different..
Cheers

Dear Woof43...

I am in pursuit of accurate info on speed ratings... What do you think of the information provided at sportscolour.com.au ? The technology they use should over come the length of a race problems and recently I read a funny article on how far is a length... It seems in Europe horses are 3 meters long, in the USA they shorten to 2.8 meters and in Oz we have the shortest at 2.75m.. I understand the rail markings at Randwick and Rosehill are 2.75m but at Canterbury horse gain a n extra .05m...

Without real facts it's all a bit up in the air..

Kind Regards

OzPunter...

Allways the student...

Hi Oz
I'm not sure that you understood what I meant regarding "How long is a Race" think about it that when the winner crosses the finishline the race is over.

You really don't want to know what each runner took to run the allotted distance, you need to find out how far they ran in the winning time and this this is the 2nd step.

The first step is you need to change the measure of each race, a good starting point is to multiply the race distance by the Track record, I'm not going to disclose everything but that should get you thinking.

Then you will progress to "how far is a length" the answer to that is located in the above two steps.

Cheers

Dear Woof43,

I have allocated many hours of grey matter processing time to the topic of sectional times and your clue is a gem in itself (I already knew that but had overlooked the importance) as is the gem I gleaned from a comment made by Osulldj when he reminded me that at the start if "leaders" are at wide barriers where there is a short run to the first turn they may be disadvantaged by not being able to get accross to the rails if reasonable "On Pace" runners are drawn inside them. "Back" runners and slow starters will not be disadvantaged in this way...

There's still lots of thinking to be done but I know I'm getting closer... When I was talking about the length of a race I have observed that the ground staff don't always position the starting gates in the right place. Taking into account the false rail they could be 25m or so out... One day when I was at Randwick they started a race at the 2400M mark and I was at the rails to watch proceedings. The barriers were 3-4 m away from the rails and were not even at 90 degrees.. The attendants fiddled around with the tractor but had to stop when the first horses arrived.. The race started with the barriers in a "She'll be right, mate" type of position....

As much as we want to accurately define everything we still have to allow for the human factor...

With the sportscolours.com.au figures, the technology they use is similiar to the chips we used to tie into our shoelaces
when I was running... I understand how it all works and the sensors are embedded in the ground so their position is constant, it's just the start that moves about a little.

Still we can only process the figures we are given, so we have to make some assumpions and give some leeway. Like the length of a horse for example...

Kind Regards

OzPunter

Ozpunter ... I would disagree with that quote of Woof43, "when the winner crosses the finish line the race is over". The race is only over for the winner and not necessarily for the placegetters.

In at least one race last Saturday, when the winner went over the line the horse that officially finished 3rd was actually in 2nd position with the horse that officially finished 2nd in 3rd position (not by much but it was certainly not in 2nd position at that stage of the race.

The scenario happens on a regular basis where one horse is slowing considerably and another running is finishing on strongly (or appearing to finish strongly).

The other factor which you might not have considered is the affect of weight on racetime.

Don Scott used as a standard the conversion of 1.5kgs (3lbs) to equalling one length, which in turn would equal 0.167 of a second. UK racing professional Nick Mordin believe that the adjustment should be variable dependent on the distance of the race.

I use a variable measurement in my own calculations, as follows:

=((B*2.75)+(W)*(D/2.75))

where B = Beaten Margin; W = Weight Carried; D = Distance of the race; 2.75 which equals one length in metres.

Care should be used when considering weight in this manner, as each horse as its upper and lower limits. That is, once a horse reaches a certain point, its weight carrying ability will be impaired and the more weight it carries above this weight the more the impairment. A good rule of thumb guide is to use the maximum weight a horse has carried to victory (or within one length in races of 1400m or less, two lengths in races at 2000m or less or three lengths in races above 2000m).

Probably more importantly, less weight will definitely not make a horse run faster, as horses have varying degrees of ability and each has its own maximum speed and while more weight will impair its ability to run at that maximum speed, less weight at the very best will only ever allow it to run up to its own maximum speed.

In one of his books, Mordin reveals the results of research he did into the effects of weight, the results of which clearly indicate that it is an overrated factor.

He disclosed four factors in regard to weight:
* Horses carrying a greater weight will be slowed down more than what less weight will speed a horse up;
* Once a horse has dropped down in weight to a certain point, then any further weight reduction will not make it run any faster than what it is capable of doing;
* Horses of a higher class generally weigh more then those of a lower class; and
* Weight affects lower class horses to a greater degree than those of a higher class.

Research carried out in the US would indicate that once the 'average' horse is weighted below 52kgs then additional weight off its back will be of little importance, while once a horse reaches 53.5kgs or more, weight will start to slow a horse down.

Mordin's research disclosed that weight required to slow a horse down by a length is dependent on the distance of the race according to the following scale:
* 1000m - 1.75kgs
* 1200m - 1.5kgs
* 1400m - 1.25kgs
* 1600m - 1kg
* 2000m - 0.8kg
* 2400m - 0.65kg
* 3200m - 0.5kg

However, Mordin also quite correctly states, "It has always been true that the higher the weight a horse is being set to carry in a handicap race, the more likely it is to win."

Another factor is one that Daniel O'Sullivan alluded to and that is the affact of wide running. Horses running wide will cover more ground, thus using more energy. However those running wide when the pace is 'on' will use a greater level of energy than those running wide when the pace is 'off' and wide running is only of real importance around the turns and no so much when running down the straight.

While on the topic of formlines, there has been another great recent example.

On 6/12 there was a maiden won by Debonair, which on figures shaped up as stronger than usual.

Out of that race...

2nd place Cathys Gold has won next start by 8L at 6/1

3rd place Troubadors Gem won next start by 3.8L at 6/4

4th place Debonair won the first at Newcastle today as favourite

5th place Incontro won next start by 3.3L at 11/4

6th and 7th place ran 2nd in separate races won by horses mentioned above.

The winner of the formline race Mediator is going around well up in class at Randwick today in race 7. Ironically she looks the one least likely to win due to the class rise but time will tell.