Im with you on the top 6 in handicaps Party but cant come into the others.


Things like days since last start are meaningless to me,yeah they win a large % but thats only because a large percentage of starters are in that catagory,doesnt tell me anything other than they are overbet.

Whatsmore some of these stats are at the mercy of the changing face of the sprot,for example before Vintage Crop won the cup it was unheard of to set a horse for a distance race first up,thesedays trainers are aware that each horse is unique and they set them accordingly,the percentage for something like raced within the last 21 days is slowly eroding,something like the top 6 pre post on the other hand is a constant.

Hey Dale, strangely I'm with you; one side of the equation when we are taking about straight out handicapping.

What we are talking about here is a systematic approach, and of course we have to accept that no matter what we will have anomalies, what we are trying to achieve ( and it definitely is not easy) is to still make a profit despite that.

So again talking PURE statistics, 80% of winners ran within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start, TRUE, but of course that means that 20% of winners did NOT run within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start etc etc.