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Old 6th August 2011, 02:45 PM
Silver_and_sand Silver_and_sand is offline
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G'day Barny. I'm a bit befuddled? Are we supposed to glean the six examples of ??? from only the text you've given in the original post, or from our own research of Whoishe's form leading into that 3/1/09 race?
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Old 6th August 2011, 03:35 PM
Silver_and_sand Silver_and_sand is offline
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If we're just supposed to glean pointers from the given text from the opening post, then:

- Better results from increasing distances. Finished 12th at 1412m, then 3rd at 1600m in it's last 2 races. Could suggest it's better suited to a longer distance, which it's about to get.

- Decreasing margins as fitness increases coming back from spell (and possibly being gelded). Finished 6 lengths back 1st race back from spell, then only 1.6 lengths back in it's 2nd race back, and about to race it's 3rd race back from spell.

- It had never raced on a Good track before, but you couldn't glean that from what was given.

- The wording "lucklustre" and "just fair" suggests that maybe the trainer wasn't targeting or intending to win either of those first 2 races, and maybe even told the jockey to ride on pace early knowing that the horse probably wouldn't last the distance on pace, but would at least gain some fitness needed to race out the 1800m distance in Whoishe's 3rd race back from the spell.

- The Bookies SP price compared to the tote price is a bit of a clue that the horse isn't a bad prospect. The Bookies are basically broadcasting to the public that they don't want to take any bets on Whoishe. I remember one time a few years ago when I was still pretty green to racing, I blindly went to put a bet on with a bookie in the betting ring with about a minute to go before the race, and he just smiled at me, and suggested I go put it on with the Tote instead. He didn't want my money, even though it was only $50. From memory, the bookies price had been $5 and the Tote price was over $12. It was stupid of me not to check the Tote price before I'd gone to the bookie, but I'd just forgotten to check first. The horse won of course, and when I walked back into the betting ring after the race, the Bookie winked at me and smiled. Say what you will about bookies, but they are pretty smart to be able to identify a likely winner even though it might be $12 on the Tote.

Are any of those points what we're supposed to be looking for Barny?
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