i notice that weekend winners super elegant, natural woman and heraklid were all last start winners within 7 days and all starting at excellent prices....by the way, how on earth did heraklid start at $26???.....he won his previous start in saturday metro class, had a reasonable strike rate and his previous win was no fluke, having had consistent form before that win.....
maybe these last start winners in 7 days are worth a shot if they're at generous odds....
cheers, noel

I have no idea why Heraklid paid so much but I'm certainly not complaining! I like backing last start winners within 7 days and it was a great day for them on Saturday. :smile:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-24 13:44 ]

I love Mondays :smile:

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Ta me go maith

noel,

Backing these willy nilly leads to the poor house, there are reasons why at least two of the three mentioned won, apart from the days factor - as part of my other filters they also bobbed up.

look at what else they had in common :wink:


Before you start on me Paddy, at least three people on this forum received my tips before the event via email. :razz:

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-24 14:27 ]

I sometimes (depending on some other factors) add a bonus unit (for next start) for horses that have performed well at their last start (eg. finished within 2 lengths of winner) & are backing up within 7 days.

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All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-05-24 14:47 ]

A horse running within 7 days tells us it has no little injuries and pulled up well from it's last start.

I think the 7 days could safely be extended out to 14 days [but not the good old 21 days] and the same conclusions drawn regarding the horses health.

Being a last start winner can be an indication of more to come perhaps, but for some horses, that we won't be seeing another win until next prep.

Class of next run and weight become important indicators to a horses chances next start and SP [for most runners who won last start] becomes a value issue, as generally for last start winners it's just not there.

Spotting and backing the first winning run of a prep. is where the real value usually is.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-25 11:08 ]

Crash and sportznut – what a great tag-team :smile:

Subtle plug Chrome Prince, now where do we find your email address again? :wink:


The “first winning run of a prep” doesn’t have to be 1st place either.
Often a horse’s first glimpse of form (and value return) is a place a big odds.

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Out in front - you make your own luck!

CRASH .Re the 14 days .Malcolm Knowles had an article on his site a couple of weeks ago .It went .
LAST RUN IN 14 DAYS
RAN A GOOD RACE WITHIN THE PAST MONTH.

Good race = 1000 -1600 Within 2 Lengths
1600 - 3200 Within 3 lengths.
Cheers.
darky.

1. No plug
2. You don't find my email address, it was given to three people on this forum who are interested in swapping information and systems and who I trust and they trust me.
Simple give and take.

I guess racestats at hotmail dot com doesn't ring a bell

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[ This Message was edited by: Unlucky Phil on 2004-05-25 14:36 ]