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  #21  
Old 14th December 2017, 08:26 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Snert, I can tell you with absolute certainty that the figure looking for is around 4% POT, any that have achieved more than that are already living the live on a private island probably in the Caribbean somewhere!!


Anyone who gambles on racehorses does so using historical data! Ratings place more importance on some elements more than others due to knowledge. Knowledge being gained from what's happened in the past. Then there's those of us that look for repeating patterns where the odds offered are greater than the chance of the horse winning.

How did you come up with the 4% POT partypooper.

I'll ask for the third time, "how do you know when your system has failed?"
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  #22  
Old 23rd December 2017, 10:03 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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4% wold be a great profit if you have a large turnover. Hey I would even take 1% on my turnover. Generally I make about 0.3 - 0.5% a year on massive turnover. I am talking about $XX,XXX,XXX turnover. The average punter can not do this sort of turnover manually.

To tell if a system is failing comes down to a large number of tests. You can't just assuming the system is failing as there could be a multitude of reasons on why its having a downturn.

Generally you know by gut feel. I can just tell. I then run through a bunch of tests and it either convinces me otherwise or I drop the system.

I run a bunch of tests not all which I will post here as the tests vary based on the systems dynamics. Lets say I had a favourites system for example.

1) are favourites still losing / winning as the long term average. Do they mirror my system results.

2) has the Chi test shown the results are within randomness during the downturn.

3) Is there any parituclar factors which group the losers together. For example lots of wet tracks now compared to previous.

4) Has the distribution of the odds changed ?

5) Has the trend on X bets changed dramatically (out of the norm).

6) Has the average strike rate of the odds grouping changed for my target odds ranges ?

Everything is about comparing what you are seeing to a longer term trend. If the dynamics of the market have changed its probably a short term issue. If they continue to change then you need to make adjustements.

But as I said after doing this for so long you can just feel it. Not a great answer but somehow you just know.
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  #23  
Old 25th December 2017, 07:52 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Great post UB, I agree. You get a feel for it. And if done in combination with even some of the tests you mention, that's how you know it's failing.
Firstly, one has to look at the rules, and results.
Divide the profit by the longest priced winner and that gives a very good indication of the likelihood of continued performance.
Some horses perform well on all weather tracks, others do not.
Some trainers go through a purple patch, who had heard of Darren Weir a few years ago, now he's broken some longstanding records, which make his jockeys look better than they really are. There are some top jockeys that have slipped way down the ratings because they are still riding for top trainers that are out of form and have been for some time.
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  #24  
Old 26th December 2017, 07:30 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Everything is about comparing what you are seeing to a longer term trend.


Yessss ...............
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