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  #5251  
Old 9th October 2018, 05:38 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default The Rugby Championship

I think were learned that the official Rugby World rantings are pretty accurate at setting odds. I posted what the fair odds would be, using Rugby World's ratings. If we discounted the fair odds by 10% or so, we got almost exactly the bookmaker odds. There are two sides to that issue though. Maybe the Rugby World ratings do give good probabilities (I put the formula on the odds sheets I posted) OR maybe book makers use the same ratings to set odds that would balance the books if a lot of batters also yanked out their calculators and cranked away at the official Rugby World ratings.

Before the matches started the ratings suggested that NZ should win 6 (they won 5 after being upset by SA); SA should (and did) win 3 (with an upset win and upset loss); Australia should win 3 but won 2 after being upset by Argentina and Argentina should win none but won two in upsets. The higher rated teams won 75% of the matches, which is good prediction. NZ earned four bonuses.

It was definitely exciting.

Ray Stefani
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  #5252  
Old 24th October 2018, 08:46 AM
Sands Sands is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
It was definitely exciting.

Thanks Ray. Was well worth the watch.
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  #5253  
Old 28th January 2019, 06:58 PM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Back at the start of this season, I mentioned that the first few weeks might rough, as old ratings needed to be adjusted and there was a new alignment. The first weeks were a bit rough; but we sure ended strongly after that.


I hope you have enjoyed the season. I am giving you my quarterfinal predictions. I will be away for the rest of the season, so good luck to all

See you next season.

Cheers!

Ray Stefani


Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Cheers
Fatcat
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  #5254  
Old 28th January 2019, 07:29 PM
Sands Sands is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Ditto Ray
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  #5255  
Old 29th January 2019, 05:39 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby is coming soon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
Ditto Ray


Thanks for the kind words guys. I will definitely crank up the good old computer and we'll be off to another fun season. I am looking forward to it!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani
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  #5256  
Old 29th January 2019, 05:42 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby for sure

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Cheers
Fatcat


Darn right. The tips will be coming your way soon!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani
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  #5257  
Old 31st January 2019, 09:35 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Round 1, 14-16 February

Hi everyone.

I am excited to see what 2019 has in store for Super Rugby. SANZAR has changed the system few times recently, but, thankfully, the system in place for 2019 is the same as for 2018.


I change various parameters in my method based on results. We had a great year in 2018, so not much changed in my model .


I begin 2019 with the team ratings from the end of 2018. In case some teams have changed from last year, be cautious for the first three or four weeks as my system adjusts ratings.


One thing I love about Super Rugby is that they beat the heck out of each other for 80 minutes, shake hands and go out for a pint afterwards as friends. If only our politicians could do that!


Here is what I think will happen in Round 1 in a couple of weeks.


Good luck,

Ray Stefani
Attached Files
File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 1.doc (52.0 KB, 342 views)
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  #5258  
Old 2nd February 2019, 12:31 AM
Sands Sands is offline
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Thumbs up

Cheers Ray
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  #5259  
Old 14th February 2019, 11:34 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Hi everyone.

I am excited to see what 2019 has in store for Super Rugby.
Here is what I think will happen in Round 1 in a couple of weeks.


Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray
Really looking forward to this round's clash between the Blues & Crusaders
In particular the match-ups between Sonny Bill Williams & Ma'a Nonu with Ryan Crotty & Jack Goodhue
Should be very entertaining
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  #5260  
Old 15th February 2019, 06:13 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Awesome match up

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiz
Thanks Ray
Really looking forward to this round's clash between the Blues & Crusaders
In particular the match-ups between Sonny Bill Williams & Ma'a Nonu with Ryan Crotty & Jack Goodhue
Should be very entertaining


That will be a great game to watch. I like Sonny Bills' style.

Ray
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