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  #21  
Old 5th February 2020, 06:39 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default Fine Cotton

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  #22  
Old 10th February 2020, 04:24 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default Predicting Horse Race Winners Using Advanced Statistical Methods

Don't let your head explode trying to understand this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gW0PO7g6pY
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  #23  
Old 13th February 2020, 10:21 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Shaun, lost me at 1.30 in when he put up the chart with all the calculations. That's when my head exploded.
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  #24  
Old 13th February 2020, 05:43 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Wow that is pretty full on. I'll watch it tonight.
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  #25  
Old 13th February 2020, 06:11 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Wow that is pretty full on. I'll watch it tonight.


As soon as i found the video i thought of you,lol
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"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
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"If you need them , you will soon find out."
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  #26  
Old 14th February 2020, 06:45 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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It was interesting. I watched it a couple of times and I have to say his approach was pretty good. His problem was his knowledge of horse racing though. He took the domain, assumed he had enough knowledge, and tried to analyse as much data as he could which wasn't enough. He then tried to come up with conclusions based on insufficient data by using "Machine learning techniques" but that really doesn't work.

Actually I did like the bit about "not all candidates are the same in the gene pool. Some are stronger, more immune to disease". This made sense when you consider the odds are the strength of a horse and some negative factors are not as bad against some favorites are they are against long shots.

The best line came at the end of the video in answer to a question. the question was "Do you currently bet this?"
His answer was "No its illegal to bet on hong kong racing in the USA."

That was just an excuse. if it was that good at prediction he could have flown to Hong Kong and bet there and easily recovered his money. He could have sold the software to a syndicate, he could have moved to a more bet friendly country. He had no confidence in it because he didn't understand it. It was a black box to him on why it might work and also why it does not work. He can't fix it.

If he spends more time on it (which hopefully he has) then he could fine tune it and use it as an input to a betting system.
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  #27  
Old 14th February 2020, 08:00 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I guess that is the perfect example why the majority of punters keep trying to find the holy grail and try new things, part of it may be addiction but i feel that because they love the game so much they keep going, like i always say, "If you don't love the job your in, then it is just a job, not a career."
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"If you need them , you will soon find out."
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  #28  
Old 20th February 2020, 08:58 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default Winning Forex Trading Formula

Not racing related but yet i found interesting to watch, maybe someone involved in trading could give there thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-H...L&index=61&t=0s
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