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  #1  
Old 12th March 2005, 08:41 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Default Maiden Race Plan

Maiden races are a completly different type of race compared to the other classes & should be addressed accordingly, one will find logic used has to be different to that of a normal race where they have all had a bunch of runs, how often does one see a Mule that has never run a race in it`s life starting as Fav & wins beating all the others with a bunch of race experience under their belts.

This plan tries to address this peculiarity.
Most of the races were mid week.
This was all done on my GTX program.
The down side to this plan ,is that one has to follow the plan race to race , unless you can find a bookie who is prepared to only bet your selection if it becomes 1st or 2nd SP Fav. at 1 min till jump.

44% POT
33%SR
Longest run of outs 10


MAIDEN RACE PLAN
7 Days a week

RACE RULES:
include if Distance between 1 and 1110M (any more than this & it falls over)
include if Field Size between 9 and 13 (any less than this means poor divs )
include if Class = MAIDEN

HORSE RULES:
include if Barrier between 2 and 12
(We are deleting barrier No.1 because it performes very badly in these type of races for some reason, maybe they are not used to being bumped or squeezed , which is notorious for this barrier No.1 its SR was half of the average total.)

HORSE RATING RULES:
include if Morning Line Rank between 3 and 7
(We are targeting those that have shortened in the ranking in pre-post to SP top 2Favs.
Include if SP Rank between 1 and 2
(This can be TAB ranking 1 min. till jump)

HORSE STATISTICS RULES:
include if Career Starts between 0 and 7 (any more & it falls over)
(This means, it qualifies if it has never started before, but no more than 7 career starts.)
This is where one will find Mules that have never run before getting up & winning. (Weird)

Cheers.
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  #2  
Old 12th March 2005, 09:04 AM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Default

i remember TESTAROSSA put forward quite a successful maiden longshot system about a year and a half ago
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  #3  
Old 13th March 2005, 10:57 PM
Sahasastar Sahasastar is offline
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Default

Where do you get the morning line rank?

ie, country/prov racing-
IAS doesn't post fixed odds until 10 mins before the race
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  #4  
Old 14th March 2005, 08:04 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Default

One gets it from any newspaper.
Remember ranking means the order they appear .
e.g. there could be 1 fav ,2 share 2nd favs, that third horse would be concidered as the 3rd ranked horse in TAB No. order of the 2 horses.
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  #5  
Old 14th March 2005, 09:55 AM
Mr ed Mr ed is offline
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A friend of mine (who does very well off the punt), only bets on distance Maidens in Victoria, say 1400 or further. He believes the form is easier to asess with fixed weights etc, and also the distance aspect takes away most of the problem with unraced, first up winners. He studies hard but is making good, consistent profit.
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  #6  
Old 14th March 2005, 04:11 PM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Red face

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr ed
but is making good, consistent profit.


aren't we all!
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  #7  
Old 14th March 2005, 11:56 PM
Mr ed Mr ed is offline
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I hate that c word.
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  #8  
Old 16th March 2005, 02:56 PM
captain charger captain charger is offline
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Bhagwan,i guess the barrier position is after scratchings,and also,approx. how many races have you tested this on,cheers.Also would you back 2 in the one race.Cheers again.
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  #9  
Old 18th March 2005, 11:31 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Captain Charger,
The barrier was after scratchings over 770 bets.
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  #10  
Old 19th March 2005, 08:02 AM
captain charger captain charger is offline
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Bhagwan,just one other thing.Pre post if it is 2nd ranking does it have to be 1st with a minute to go.in other words you said they had to improve from the pre post ranking,or doesn't it matter,it's just 1-2 ranking with one to go,thanks and good luck.
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