Hi all

Just wondering what you feel you are most comfortable with. If you wanted to win $1000 a week over the course of a year would you look for one big bet per week.

So eg. 1 selections for the week at say 2/1 $500 bet for return of $1500

or many bets for the week and keep outlays lower but turnover higher and possibley betting more than one per race.

Cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

I find the S/R is the same anyway (approx) so end result i.e. Profit on Turnover remains the same as well. But for me, feels more comfortable to have several smaller bets, just my 2 cents.

To make $1000 a week by betting $500 on a $3.00 winner each week is impossible.

It is a complete fallacy that all you need to do is be very selective and you can back one winner at good odds every week.

Let's see how we go, assuming $1000 is bet on one horse each week. So I'll start a thread in the tipping forum. Who'll volunteer?

Like I said the S/R remains about the same, so does the POT(LOT) , in fact (unfortunately) purely from a mathematical point of view it can be broken down even further, take all the 1/1 shots backed in say 2 years, S/R will be about 45-48%, 2-1 shots S/R about 30%, 3-1 shots about 20-22% etc etc etc. that's why there are such things as bookmakers ???

All of the above is of course pertaining to mere mortals. hee hee

The number of bets most punters have has everything to do with what action level is the most pleasurable and comfortable. It has nothing to do with good mathematics because at bad odds [odds overall are against the punter] the more bets, the greater the losses.

Conversely, the less bets a punter has the better. If a punter spent $10k on bets a year and the average real odds were say 2 or 3/1, the punter has far more 'chance' of making a profit with 1 [only] $10k bet than with a 1000 $10 bets.
For starters, If the $10k bet wins the punter has doubled his money and he has a 2 or 3/1 odds of doing so. What would the odds be of DOUBLING your money after 12mths. with 1000 $10 bets? .... HUGE !!!

Basically, the more small bets a punter has the larger the % loss of total money staked at the end of the year and vis-a-vis [there are plenty of maths sites that will explain this].
Think of Russian Roulette. Would you like one go at collecting on a big wager, or would you like lots of small goes for the same money? :-)
It's identical odds for each pull of the trigger, but just like punting on horses, the more you pull the trigger another element, 'chance' [not odds] starts working against you in ever increasing amounts :-)

Punters that have minimal losses or the rare few who make a profit, all have one thing in common ...they have fewer and larger bets [unless they are O/S pros. working tiny percentages and betting exchange turnover kick-backs on exotics] than the majority of punters.

I don't totally agree with that statement crash.

In all honesty, I have made a profit with my favourite betting tool. "Flexi bet".

Selecting four dogs and boxing them in a trifecta for a $2 Flexi bet. I only receive 8.333% of the winnings. But that only means that a trifecta has to pay $25 for me to make a profit. And when you are selecting half the field, the strike rate appears to be quite good.

But of course before that, I was a swing.


For example, If I select 1-4 meetings on a given day, that could mean between 6 and 48 races. At $2, the total days spending could be anywhere from $12 and $96. Applying the 8.33% flexi return, means that in total I only have to acheive a $150 trifecta in the six races to break even. Or over the 48 races, that would mean selecting a total of $1200.

Mind you the same applies with F4 betting for me aswell, with the biggest return at $257 from the $2 bet.

That selection alone allowed me to have 126 losing selections in a row. If I should ever have to many losses in a row.

Ive had my good wins (by my standards) when playing around with first 4's.

14/10/2006 15:32 14/10/2006 ****2R 7 3,4-3,4,7,10-1,2,3,4,7,10-1,2,3,4,7,10 (FLEXI 1.3888%) P First 4 1 (COST)$1.00 (CREDIT)$98.46

AND

18/10/2006 11:50 18/10/2006 SYDR 1 3,4-1,3,4,7-1,3,4,6,7,9-1,3,4,6,7,9 (FLEXI 1.3888%) P First 4 1 (COST) $1.00 (CREDIT) $139.89


But there are moments when you have a slip of the finger:

17/10/2006 14:38 17/10/2006 BRIH 6 1,3,5,7-1,2,3,5,7,8-1,2,3,5,7,8 P Trifecta 1 (COST) $80.00 (CREDIT) $65.30

Forgot to press the flexi button there. Thankfully it won.

I do have a lot of little bets. There is no way known I am going to spend $100 in a single bet (unless I make a mistake again). WHY? Because I have a fear of losing that amount of money in a split second.

Im going through my account records at the moment, trying to find the trifecta 8.33% period, and its taking its time.


Here is an example::

Date (AEST) Time (AEST) Event Date Meeting Rc Selections S Bet Type Base Inv. Debit Credit
31/10/2006 22:12 31/10/2006 MELG 11 4,6,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 22:10 31/10/2006 BRIG 9 2,4,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 22:05 31/10/2006 PERG 10 2,3,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:59 31/10/2006 MELH 8 PLA 3 L 0
31/10/2006 21:59 31/10/2006 MELH 8 WIN 3 L Win and Place 1 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:54 31/10/2006 SYDG 10 2,6,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:48 31/10/2006 MELG 10 3,5,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:48 31/10/2006 MELG 10 3,5,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:46 31/10/2006 PERH 5 3,8,9,11 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:40 31/10/2006 PERG 9 3,4,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:39 31/10/2006 ****2G 10 1,2,5,6 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:31 31/10/2006 MELG 9 1,3,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:30 31/10/2006 MELG 9 1 L Win 1 $1.00
31/10/2006 21:26 31/10/2006 BRIG 8 1,2,5,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P First 4 2 $2.00 (CREDIT)$257.94
31/10/2006 21:23 31/10/2006 PERG 8 2,3,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:23 31/10/2006 ****2G 9 2,5,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:13 31/10/2006 SYDG 8 1,2,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:10 31/10/2006 MELG 8 1,4,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:08 31/10/2006 BRIG 7 1,3,5,9 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 (CREDIT)$5.55
31/10/2006 21:05 31/10/2006 PERG 7 1,4,6,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00




Date (AEST) Time (AEST) Event Date Meeting Rc Selections S Bet Type Base Inv. Debit Credit
30/10/2006 21:18 30/10/2006 BRIG 6 1,2,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 21:16 30/10/2006 ****1G 6 3,4,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 21:14 30/10/2006 ADLG 9 4,5,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $12.29
30/10/2006 21:07 30/10/2006 SYDG 6 1,2,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $3.94
30/10/2006 21:03 30/10/2006 MELG 7 1,2,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:59 30/10/2006 BRIG 5 1,4,6,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $2.78
30/10/2006 20:56 30/10/2006 ****1G 5 1,2,5,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $12.92
30/10/2006 20:54 30/10/2006 ADLG 8 1,2,5,6 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $6.74
30/10/2006 20:50 30/10/2006 SYDG 5 2,5,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:46 30/10/2006 MELG 6 1,2,3,7,8 (FLEXI 2.5%) L First 4 3 $3.00
30/10/2006 20:38 30/10/2006 BRIG 4 3,5,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:35 30/10/2006 ****1G 4 1,10 L Duet 0.5 $0.50
30/10/2006 20:35 30/10/2006 ****1G 4 2,6,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:33 30/10/2006 ADLG 7 1,2,5,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:26 30/10/2006 MELG 5 1,2,5,7,8 (FLEXI 2.5%) P First 4 3 $3.00 $3.13
30/10/2006 20:26 30/10/2006 MELG 5 1,2,5,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:22 30/10/2006 BRIG 3 1,3,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 (CREDIT)$33.01
30/10/2006 20:21 30/10/2006 ****1G 3 6,10 L Duet 0.5 $0.50
30/10/2006 20:18 30/10/2006 ****1G 3 1,2,3 (FLEXI 33.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00



Now hopefully all this mumbo jumbo comes out in readible format. But all in all, I have to say I have made a handy profit.


So I have to say, that I disagree with your statement crash, and I do have the proof to back up my own statements.

I think my worst run was 27 bets without a single return. Or something similar to that anyway. In the end, I enjoy my small bets, and am not willing to spend $100 on a single selection/bet.

__________________
GO VOUVRAY

Oakensnaf,

Your presenting a personal situation as mathematical argument and 'evidence'.

Probability is what turns the tide in any Zero sum game. The more you play it the more you will lose. If you can create an edge [odds in your overall favour], then the opposite of course applies.

If you have a 2/1 odds [against] of crossing a paddock with an angry young bull in it and only do it once, you have probability working for you the best it possibly can, do it 1000 times and you will be gored to death for sure on one of those trips because probability [not odds] worsens with each trip. The odds of course remain exactly the same with each trip. Odds are not the same as probability and confusing the two is quite common.

What a maths site has to say on the subject:

A jar contains 1 blue mable and 3 red marbles.

Odds are expressed as the number of chances for (or against) versus
the number of chances against (or for). So, since there is 1 chance
of your picking the blue, and 3 chances of your picking red, the odds
are 3 to 1 AGAINST you picking the blue. For odds in favor, we just
reverse them. The odds are 1 to 3 IN FAVOR OF you picking the blue.

This can be a little confusing, so I'll say it again. If you express
odds as AGAINST, you put the number of chances against first, versus
the number of chances for. If you express odds as IN FAVOR OF, you
put the chances for the event happening first.

Note that this does NOT mean that the probability is 1/3 for or
against in the above example.

To convert odds to probability, we have to ADD the chances. So, if
the odds against a horse winning are 4 to 1, this means that, out of
5 (4 + 1) chances, the horse has 1 chance of winning. So the
PROBABILITY of the horse winning is 1/5 or 20 percent.

And put another way:

Lets first show the difference between probability and odds in another way, just
to be sure we're using the same terminology. The probability of an
event is:

------------ (Chances for)
P(x) = ------------------------------
------------ (Total chances)

So, for example, the probability of drawing an ace in a single deck of
52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13 (or about 0.077 = 7.7%).

Odds, on the other hand, are given as:

(Chances for) : (Chances against)

Of course, (Total chances) = (Chances for) + (Chances against), so
we can determine (Chances against) as (Total chances) - (Chances for).
The odds of drawing an ace in a deck of cards are
4:.....(52-4) = 4:48 = 1:12.

It's easy to work out from the above that for each chance [bet] you take when the odds are against you, your situation is worsening because of negative probability.

Two legs of 15 horses. Picking both winners is 1/225. But those two events are not dependant on each other, meaning that even if you win your first leg, you are not more likely to lose the second. Despite probability explaining that you do.

That is the way that I look at it.

__________________
GO VOUVRAY

Of course you are exactly right. Where probability enters the situation and worsens your chances, is when you have the same bet more than once.

The odds for the single event [or bet] of course remain the exactly the same as you point out. But we are talking here [this thread] of one bet versus many and that is where 'probability' does it's business and why Casinos make a fortune [lots of small bets].

Hi all

Interesting most likely i would not be able to pick one bet per week and come out in front as thats not how i bet.

As far as lots of small bets well a few i have had some correspondence with over time have done pretty well betting small bets doing some 1000 - 1500 races a week and lots of money management, and making regular income.

I tried but couldn't do it sitting on the comp some 10hrs a day.

Oaksnaf
Could you tell me more about this fexi bet:
Which venue bets like this

How the returns are caculated

Does one have to box all selections etc or can one have combination like 3x5x9 for example.

Cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!