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#1
4th January 2011, 11:59 AM
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Its a weighty issue
I just don’t get it. I find it hard to believe that weight is important when assessing a horses chances, within reason of course. Let’s consider two horses (Phatty & Skinny) both of similar ability (disregard the obvious if they’re both similar ability why aren’t they equally handicapped ?) and a race over 1600 mtrs where both are equal chances. Phatty has been been allocated 57 kgs and Skinny has been allocated 53 kgs. Now the first thing I suppose we would look at is the difference in weight of 4 kgs and try to figure out how that translates into an advantage or margin. I guess there would be a formulae for that. 4kgs is seen as a significant weight difference / advantage. Now let’s look at Phatty’s physical weight which is 520kgs, so Phatty has to lump 577kgs around 1600 metres. Skinny weighs 500kgs so Skinny has to lump 554kgs. 4kgs represents 0.69% of Phatty’s total weight and 4 kgs represents 0.72% of Skinny’s total weight, a difference between the two horses of 0.03%. How the heck can 0.03% difference in weight have any meaningful affect ? You could argue that this figure is counting the 4kgs twice?
Let’s further add that Phatty is carrying 52kgs of jockey and 5kgs of lead, but Skinny is carrying all the 53kgs in jockey weight. Do we take this into account? Remember that 4kgs is seen as a significant weight advantage. Further, Phatty usually races best when he’s around 505kgs and Skinny is only 5kgs off her best racing weight. So Phatty has got to lose 15kgs and Skinny 5kgs, that’s a difference of 10kgs. Does this count? Is a horses excess body weight as significantl as the difference of handicapped weight between two horses? Is 5kg of lead worse or better than 5kgs of jockey, I would think lead is worse, but how do you take that into account? So we have 4kg advantage to Skinny compared with Phatty, (plenty of times you can read that one horse has a huge weight advantage over another). Where does this 4kg sit in respect to physical weight, handicapped weight, lead weight, and overall weight carried by the horse? 
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#3
5th January 2011, 08:06 AM
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#5
5th January 2011, 03:13 PM
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Bart Cummings has said “weight will stop a train”, which is a well known quote of his. I haven’t read any book on Bart Cummings but I do know that he and many other trainers put weight right up there as an issue. I am convinced that this is the trainers one percenters (much, much less than that actually) and their ego on display to demonstrate how hard the training game is, which it is I guess. How many times have you seen comments in the racing guide which say “Weight Certainty”, or ………. “Big Red” meets “Gunsynd” 2 ½ kgs better off than when “Gunsynd” won by a half head over “Big Red”. 2 ½ kgs for a half head result ??? ………. Mugs rush in and back “Big Red” and the bookies collect again.
Strike weight from the top 10 filters from any system, it’s over rated I believe.
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#7
7th January 2011, 08:31 AM
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another thread got me thinking.
We all think we know dead weight is worse then live weight (jockey). Something that could be looked at is how horses perform on the comparison from the miniimum weighted horse a jockey rides for the day. Its not perfect but it may give some insight on whether or not dead weight is worse for a horse to carry.
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#8
8th January 2011, 03:19 PM
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For a complete Analyisis of weight I,d recommend Malcolms knowles little booklet "Weight" www.inracing.com.au
For example those horses weighted 55 kg + represent 36.5 % of races yet win 50.6 %.A massive advantage. Cheers darky
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#9
3rd February 2011, 03:42 PM
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Back on this issue ….. I do believe that a decent weight advantage can assist a lightly raced horse with untapped talent (doesn’t have to be a budding champion !) over the field ..... However ?! .....
How many times have we seen a race where two horses raced against each other in their previous run and front up again in a similar race. One horse has say a 3.5 kg weight advantage for a half length defeat by the winner….. only to see the same horse salute again !? Fitness, muscle, fat, the actual weight of the horse itself, best racing weight, the jockey’s weight, any lead weight carried ….. are all weight related issues, yet the concentration is on allocated weight. I cannot get my head around the study of weight when there are so many more important factors. “Having said that. Let me say this” ….. luv that ! Malcolm Fraser’s funniest line ever ! Delete 2yo, 3yo, WFA, set weights ….. and without me having ANY decent knowledge of ratings, class, value etc, I am of the opinion that the topweight in a handicap is usually at very good odds comparatively. Plenty of topweights have won the Melbourne Cup, spring class sprints, and your run of the mill handicaps. My theory, (which I believe in time will be up there with the best scientific theories known to man) is that these handicaps (excluding 2yo, 3yo, WFA and set weights) have a field of horses so well known that they can be assessed within an inch of their existence, and the weight, which I believe to be insignificant in most cases, is “overvalued” by the unwashed ….. thus pushing the price out. This is the EDGE ! Since reading a lot of posts here, I’ve browsed through many old form guides over recent times and have noticed the topweights (excluding 2yo, 3yo, WFA and set weights) were at decent odds. Some topweights with decent recent form have won at what I would describe as generous odds. And it pays better on the TAB which tells you that the unwashed have done their weight study ..... those damn fools ! So Rule Number One is the Topweight (excluding 2yo, 3yo, WFA and set weights) Good ….. that’s only taken 38 years of punting to set that in stone ! Now for Rule No. 2 …………………………………
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#10
3rd February 2011, 04:15 PM
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Horse A has a dump and a peee in the mounting yard, saw it happen hundreds of times. Which horse has a weight advantage now? Weight is highly overrated by itself, better to study which horses can or cannot carry weight over distance. Good luck
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