I admit that I am firing from the hip here but a simple setting me straight will shut me up. I am laying the field to <$30 if the fav is<$4. One thing I am noticing is the number of races that I don't get on because the fav is >$4.

My research is tote based not Betfair. 26.5% of races on the tote have the fav>$3.50. Their strike rate is from 26.2% at $3.60 in a straight progression to 11.7% at $5.50. In each case the strike rate times the return is poor. 80-90% of outlay.

What I am noticing is that there seems to be a higher rate of races >$4 than the tote figures. Today 13 from 41 races already run have been >$4 Far in excess of the tote. It gets worst in UK. A simple calc says that this is close to break even.

Has any one got a breakdown of the strike rate and return of +$4 betfair favs?
It may be prudent to trial. Beton

Beton - I have that info for the previous 3 months (Jul/Aug/Sep) - but I take the top rank and price at 10 seconds before start. I could also give you the final top rank and price but not sure if you could always get on at that price. I will provide it tomorrow.

Just arrived home and found Unitab have changed their website so will have to sort that out first #%#@#@ !! .. first Betfair now Unitab!!

I don't have the stats but why not just check against the betfair historical data. You can get free at data.betfair.com.au

Make sure you use the .com.au site otherwise you need 100 betfair points in order to qualify to get the UK data.

4legs, Use the unitab XML feed. It hasn't changed.

Thanks 4legs That would be appreciated. Of these 13 races >$4 run today 3 won (23% SR) paying $12 (92.3%) on WA TAB. I have not looked at Betfair yet but it should be a plus. Beton

Hi beton

I have been recording the first fav for nearly the last 3 months however in July I was recording backing so it may be a bit out. The win/losses are for laying the 1st favs but no commission is deducted which adds up to a fair bit. I'm also not sure if >4 means 4 and above or 4.1 and above so included both.

I hope it helps.

July 9-31
4.0+ 246 Bets, 197 favs lost, 20% Winning S/R, -$13.7
4.1+ 262, 211, 19.5% SR, -$21.7

August
4.0+ 377, 303, 19.7% SR, +$24.2
4.1+ 359, 290, 19.3% SR, +$26.2

September 1-22
4.0+ 265, 200, 24.6% SR, -$44.6
4.1+ 254, 191, 24.8% SR, -$47.6

I found it to be all over the place and when I thought backing was bad in July I changed to laying in August which was okay until September

Fair dinkum, this betting games for mugs.

Thanks Ocho.
The strike rate looks up a bit higher than the tote SR for the same price. 19% at $4.10 and sliding on the tote. Ultimately one would be losing or just shifting rocks around the paddock. If you are just shifting rocks , one may as well drive the local garbage truck. At least you get paid for effort. I downloaded some betfair history but it is beyond me (I must learn excel ) Less effort to trial it. On the Aus races I think it may be hard work to just break even. UK I have a hunch is better. The prices seem better from the glancing that I have done and there seems to be a substantial bias. I seem to be missing out on 50% of the races. If the average fav win accross the board is circa 33% then the UK + $4 market must be skewed to the mid 20ies%. I will see how I can keep tabs on it. Beton

If you go to the Adrian Massey site for UK stats, they have an interactive web

site to test things like price range for Favs.

__________________
Cheers.

As at at the 10 sec before close (BSP). The return is closing SP with no commissions deducted. Period July/Aug/Sept.

Range	Number	Wins	S/Rate	Return
$0.00 - $2.00	371	204	55%	$ 353.48
$2.01 - $3.00	1,004	400	40%	$ 1,031.80
$3.01 - $4.00	1,144	340	30%	$ 1,219.78
$4.01 - $5.00	671	131	20%	$ 590.12
$5.01 - $6.00	222	42	19%	$ 230.12
$6.01 - $7.00	43	7	16%	$ 43.42
>$7	6	1	17%	$ 5.69
	3,461	1,125	33%	$ 3,474.41

Historic data only though. No longer updated

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

4Legs Thanks
I have added the tote strike rate for the same price range. The conclusion that I draw is that it confirms that the Betfair prices are higher. I only went to $5.70 as that was as much as I had printed on my reference sheet. Still you take off commissions and you are behind the 8 ball.

Range -------Number -Wins -S/Rate ---Return ----Tote SR
$0.00 - $2.00 --371 -- 204 --- 55% --$ 353.48 ---50.34%
$2.01 - $3.00 -1,004 -400 --- 40% --$ 1,031.80--33.67%
$3.01 - $4.00 -1,144 - 340--- 30% --$ 1,219.78--25.40%
$4.01 - $5.00 ---671- 131--- 20% ---$ 590.12 --17.06%
$5.01 - $6.00 ---222-- 42 --- 19% ---$ 230.12 --15.60%
$6.01 - $7.00 ---43 ----7 ----16% ---$ 43.42 --
>$7------------- 6 -----1 ----17% ----$ 5.69
--------------3,461 1,125 --- 33% ---$ 3,474.41

The observation that I am making is that my tote analysis has 15% of races occur with the fav at over $4. Your results show on Betfair 27%. On the UK races this seems higher. 13 races out of 31 last night. Thats 42%. One can read into that higher average prices which should mean turning a commission loss into positive territory. Beton