I have made it to the final 35 of the last man spring tipping comp which leaves me with a few interesting problems.

At the moment if everyone picked the same horse we would win 50,000/35 = $1428 each.

Now assuming that not all 35 people pick the same horse in the Emiriate Stakes on Saturday that number should increase. Effectively though I thought I could take advantage of this for a win-win situation.

I am likely to tip Jimmy Choux.

Should I bet every other winner to make a profit. Right now if I was take the bet on betfair with the current odds I would have to outlay of $1368 which would be terrible. But not all 20 horses will be tipped. I suspect out of the 35 tipsters only 5-6 horses will be tipped. If no one tips the winner I would win the $1428. This means that the outlay would reduce significantly. I'll probably have to outlay 1100 - 1200 for several hundred profit at a minimum.

I will know the exact amount I can win by the first Flemington race on Saturday. I will also knopw how much I need to outlay.

I am interested in peoples thoughts on whether they would hedge the profit or just go for the win on the tipping comp?

What is jimmy's lay price right now, i can't find the market.

Ok found the market, his lay is 7 at some point before the race are you able to work out what the return will be based on selections?

Shaun,

I'll know the exact amount on Saturday at about midday. My thinking is It will be $200-$300 if I incorrectly tip in the comp and place the bets. It will be $1428 or higher if I go for the competition only and get it correct, It will be 0 if I get it wrong though.

I'll post the exact prices on Saturday though and what my decision is.

It should also be remembered I don't need to bet every horse as if no one tips a horse I effectively have it running for me in the comp as well. Looking at it I reckon a maximum of 7 horses will be tipped from the 35 people left. So I only need to bet the 6 other horses which are tipped by others and not me.

oops no that is wrong.

Sorry didn't read your post correctly, i would wait and lay jimmy with the correct amount to make profit win or loss.

I did a calc on the current odds and return

You can lay 204 @7 for a profit 203/193.80

The smaller amount on the right takes in to account commission if he losses.

But i would wait until you know your returns and the lay price comes in, if you need an excel sheet to just put in the amounts and it will work out results let me know.

Shaun, great suggestion.

I could also lay all the horses not tipped in the comp increasing my return if I want to.

Thanks for the advice.

I may not understand the comp, what happens if no one picks the winner, do you split the 50k.