Hello all. Considering all the methods and research completed in the past by members of this forum, I want to see some losing streak figures.

So members, despite your best efforts in making selections and betting methods what are some of the horror losing streaks you have experienced in testing your results ?

I am particularly interested in losing streaks where a member may have been betting on more than one horse in a race. However, any stats you have on file would be of interest.

In case I am not making my intentions clear I am trying to get a feel for what kind of losing streaks may be possible, even when selecting "in form" or "promising" horses.

In all my browsing I only found reference to a losing streak of about 21 bets so far. I am considering a low strike rate method with a good average win dividend.

Comments are appreciated.



[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2003-10-25 13:59 ]

[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2004-06-15 17:54 ]

[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2004-06-15 17:55 ]

Hi Cameron
I like the idea of betting on 2 horses per race because with the right selection criteria and a good staking plan it swings the odds back my way a little.

My Numbers this week are as follows -
25.10.03 32 bets 18 collects 5.31 div 49% pot
23.10.03 15 bets 12 collects 3.37 div 33% pot
22.10.03 29 bets 18 collects 4.02 div 31% pot
18.10.03 24 bets 09 collects 4.89 div -3% pot

The longest loosing streak for the week was 6
the longest winning streak was 9 and 6 twice.

The longest loosing streak has been 10
(in 623 races)and that was on the 17.10.03 but on that day i ended up with a 30% pot after selecting a $35 winner (NR 3 no. 5)but then isnt that racing.

Hi Guys,

I like to do a bit of 'Dutching', too, Big Ted --- nice to have a couple of horses going for you in a race. Can be expensive if you don't pick the winner in your two or three :sad:

How on earth did you choose a $35 winner as one of two??? Or was it just a lucky slip! I happened to hit a $60 winner at the dogs the other night in that way. At least it makes up for the mistakes when you err the other way.

Sorry, Cameron, I know I haven't really commented on your post. Despite the best of intentions I rarely keep records --- and when I do the selection systems are so different that I doubt they would mean much.

[ This Message was edited by: Merriguy on 2003-10-26 13:07 ]

Hey Ted. Your figures are impressive. Am I correct in assuming you are betting each way, rather than for a win?

Hi Cameron,

I have an experimental system that I have recently started running on a real bank. It has been backtested over the last 20 months. It is actually a combination of two systems which will sometimes pick the same horse in the same race, but never different horses.

There have been 1800 races bet over the test period, with a total of about 2400 bets. (if both systems pick the same horse I double my bet).

The longest run of outs over that period of time was 24. However, the maximum drawdown of my bank would have been 65 units. If you're trying to figure out a bank size, I would suggest you base it on the 65 unit drawdown, rather than the 24 outs.

Hope this helps.

Cheers,
Chris.

PS. I should have stated that my overall strike rate is approx 25%.

[ This Message was edited by: stebbo on 2003-10-26 19:49 ]

Hi Guys
I’ll clear up a few things first
1) I only bet on 2 selections per race even though I do the ratings for every runner.
2) All races that are selected are done so by computer under a set criteria devised by myself
3) I bet the same amount on both horses no matter what price they are, I don’t have a target figure to win per race as in “Dutch betting”.
4) I bet to win only and not each way.
5) Last but by no means least I use a staking plan.

What I have tried to do is take the human element out and the above criteria will do most of that for me.
They are the 5 simple rules I follow. The first two are simple enough, the 3rd is purely greed, as if the longer priced runner gets up I want to have as much on it as possible.

The 4th is simple; I do not believe it is viable or sensible to back 2 horses for the place in the same race, just my opinion.

The 5th again is simple; a good “staking plan” is worth its weight in gold. It controls how you bet, keeps records of your bets and again takes out the human element.

Most people will tell you that level stakes is the way to go, I prefer a staking plan but it’s a personal choice.
I don’t believe that you can compare them against each other because they are two different “animals” so to speak.
What I can tell you is that neither one will make you money if you don’t pick winners.

I hope this helps

__________________
Talks cheap - Money buys houses

A general rule ,is to multiply your theoretical worst run of outs by 3.5,if betting level stakes, to work out your bank size.
Remember ,
No Bank = No Chance

Get the bank size wrong & it will be purely luck only, that might save you.

Here are the theoretical worst run of outs you should expect to strike at some stage of your punting career ,depending on your strike rate average.
S/R-Outs in a row
10%-65
15%-42
20%-31
25%-24
30%-20
35%-16
40%-14
45%-12
50%-10
55%-9
60%-8

__________________
Cheers.

would it be wiser to assume not only losing streak factor, but at the end of the streak, how much $$ was lost ?

Thanks Bhagwan - was waiting for a numbers guru like yourself to speak up.

Puntz, I agree with your comment. I have already put a max $$ figure on the losing streak scenario. Just trying to get some ideas as to how often it may occur.

I start getting into trouble at about 25 plus losses in a row. However, this is not a problem if you set a max loss limit to bug out at and have just had many days of good profits.

My advice is to mix your systems.

If you have a system which picks winners 50% of the time and one which picks them 20% of the time, you can cut your losing streaks by combining the two.

__________________
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