Thought I'd post some interesting data from RaceCensus.

Last start winners on country tracks that started favourite...
33.39% Win
-12.40% Loss

Last start winners on provincial tracks that started favourite...
33.04% Win
-13.50% Loss

Last start winners on metropolitan tracks that started favourite...
35.15% Win
-10.59% Loss

First starters on country tracks that started favourite...
37.36% Win
-13.96% Loss

First starters on provincial tracks that started favourite...
36.55% Win
-15.86% Loss

First starters on metropolitan tracks that started favourite...
34.92% Win
-19.00% Loss

Makes for some interesting thought.
Took less than 5 minutes for the entire database to process and calculate over 15+ years of data

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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Thankyou CP

Where there's dirt there is gold...

My data on things like CP's database is out of date.

Last time I looked backing favourites lost 12.3%,
At around a div of $2.8 and a strike/rate of 31%.

These figures are about 6-7 years old.

But "IF" close to the mark in CP'S stats anything,
Better than the above is a starting point beating the average
albeit a losing one.

So last start winners on metropolitan tracks.


Cheers.
Garyf.

I've only revealed half the story here, because it wouldn't be fair to existing clients. The data is correct, but there is further advantage breaking it down into categories.

Garyf, I've done a quick test on Metropolitan favourites for the last 15 plus years, here are the results:

31.60% Strike Rate
11.52% Loss on turnover
$2.80 average dividend

Then...

Jan 2008 to July 31st 2014
32.71% Strike Rate
8.96% Loss on turnover
$2.78 average dividend

Things to consider: There have been many changes in track surfaces since 2008 and race classes. We have also had one or two champion horses.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Not surprised.
The trick is to find the ones that are not false favs.
Not hard if one can read form.
i.e Backmarker at 1000 M

At a disadvantage at any distance in fact.
(more prone to checks ,blocks ,wide running.)

Thanks, will enter this current new data 2008=>as a reference & benchmark,
For myself in the future.

Cheers.
Garyf.

I wonder what role field size has in all this. Id say field size and a more intelligent market.

Yep the 1st part Field/Size, obviously the smaller the size,
The higher the strike/rate & the lower the odds.

I can address all this with my own data, what I didn't,
Have was a benchmark figure of "ALL" favourites for,
The last 6 odd years just to use as a guide to any new,
Strategies I may want to look at re that stat..

Market being more intelligent I will leave for others,
With data-bases to comment.

Certainly with my own, nothing is showing up as,
Of recent years but you may be right.

Cheers.

From my studies, there is no evidence to suggest that the market is any more intelligent (as a whole group), than it was 50 years ago.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Favourites by raceday:

Monday: 31.70% S/R
Tuesday: 32.43% S/R
Wednesday: 31.64% S/R
Thursday: 32.01% S/R
Friday: 32.02% S/R
Saturday: 31.74% S/R
Sunday: 31.39% S/R

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg