Hi crew,

Schmiley is back with a brand new adventure.

Laying lowly rated commodities in Average-Quality races, in the $5-$21 range to preserve high lay SR and hopefully a POT.

RULES:
- 9+ runners
- Min c3 or BM70
- No 2yo,3yo, Fillies or Mares races.
- 1200-1800m dis range
- Lay for win $5-$21 price Betfair SP or 10 seconds before advertised the jump
- Lay for the place $21+
- Lay .3% of bank flat stake
- Bank $10,000 (hypothetical)

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Today's selections (Tatts opening fixed before betfair price filter):

Sandown
5 1800 70
5 LIBERTY LEADER ($21)
6 PAKARI TOA ($21)
8 SAMMY THE SNAKE ($10)

Launceston
10 1400 82
6 LINGO ($6)
7 PENGALAS GEE GEE ($13)

Stake: $30 flat

Let's see how the cookie crumbles on this one.

Have a glorious day fellow 'propuntions'

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

I assume with price and race quality being the only filters that this would be a losing proposition over the long term? I don't have the figures to say whether it is or not but my thought is you'd need other filters that differentiate yourself from the crowd a bit?

Either way good luck with it, its nice to see some new threads lately questioning certain things or looking for viable systems etc. I'm always trying to read and take in more information to try and help me gather more profitable systems and unfortunately it's dried up here a fair bit in recent times.

Hi Josh,

The selections are based on ratings, so $21 is the cut-off point.

I'm trying to find the sweet spot - between high strike rate & profitability.Cutting off at $21, stops the massive long shot blowouts that occur on Betfair. Whether it will be profitable over the long-term remains to be seen, however I am using a ratings filter (tea leaves, oujia boards & tidal movements etc) to keep this on the level. ha ha

I too am trying to resurrect the systems forum my friend. Your posts have been most encouraging of late and watching your development over the last few years has been awesome!

I have recently been trawling previous threads for nuggets of gold and have found a few, so encourage any newbies to use the 'advanced search' function, put on a brew (or grab a frothy) and get the reading glasses out.

'There's gold in them there hills!!'

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Today's selections (Tatts opening fixed before betfair price filter):

Sandown
5 1800 70
5 LIBERTY LEADER ($21) UNPL $8 PL
6 PAKARI TOA ($21) UNPL $4.7 PL
8 SAMMY THE SNAKE ($10) 3rd $18.60 WIN

Launceston
10 1400 82
6 LINGO ($6) UNPL $13 WIN
7 PENGALAS GEE GEE ($13) UNPL $6 PL

A good start, though laying in this price bracket there will be large peaks and troughs.

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RESULTS

WIN BETS
OUT 3 IN 5.805 SR 3/3 P/L +2.805

PLACE BETS
OUT 2 IN 3.87 SR 2/2 P/L +1.87

ALL PLACE BETS
OUT 5 IN 6.94 SR 4/5 P/L +1.94

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Ah I see, makes more sense given ratings are involved in the process as well. I was worried you were just laying any horses in that range haha.

I was looking over some data for one of my systems yesterday before reading this thread actually and found that the 'sweet spot' for that system seemed to be laying between odds of $5 and $35. I'd say each system is different but I'd assume that you start losing a fair bit of value beyond this type of range.

A lot of the idea's of trialed/tested or spurred me on to try new things with my ratings have came from the old threads in this forum. As you say using the advanced search and spending some time to do some reading can be very interesting. 99% of whats posted in the old threads isn't profitable on its own but its certainly thought provoking and allows you to tweak for your own needs.

I'm definitely a believer of any system needing to fit the identity of the man and same applies a lot in my job within the finance/investing industry. A lot of what I do is based on tolerance towards risk and the same applies to betting. Can you handle x run of outs, are you a number guy who can get almost every market profitable like Mark, are you a ratings guy, are you laying or are you backing etc etc. It all has to suit your personality otherwise you'll hate doing it and won't be profitable.

I'd nearly guarantee that most guys who make consistent profit have found the niche of the process that they are good at and either outsourced or automated the rest of the process.

Good luck with this approach TS i'll continue to follow and post

Today's race is:

Ballarat
6 1400 70

However no horses fit the bill in terms of price. I'm trying to lay only those that open equal or less than $21.

The only horse to fit my criteria as a lay in this race is no. 2 Tully Costa, however it opened at $26.

Should be some action tomorrow.

Cheers for your comments Josh, always appreciated!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

ALBURY

6 1400 70
4 Bono Vox ($11)
9 Speckie ($9)

7 1175 c4
7 Gold Show ($21)
8 Iza Star ($10)

*Once again Lay for the WIN if $5-21 on Betfair just before the off or Lay for the PLACE if >$21.

There were qualifying races at Grafton and the Sunshine Coast, however I avoided them due to Heavy tracks. Good up to Soft (5) tracks only considered.

TGIF.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

'It's the end of the world, as we know it.......'

Bono Vox WINS at $32/6.

Off for a cheeky pint or three to recover!!

#mayhaveuncoveredtheworldsgreatestwinsystem

#howcanIgowrongafterextensivetestingof9runners

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

You would have only lost for the place though as it was over $21 for the win.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Spot on The Ocho, not an unmitigated disaster, however 3/4 placegetters did not instill confidence. Unfortunately I'm out of time today, I'll post an update Sunday night or Monday, with Sat & Sunday round ups.

Have a fine day one and all and hope you make a fine profit!!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty