Know a bloke who waits for on eof his many good selection methods to have a run of outs ..... then he starts punting it. Makes a dollar and waits for his next selection method to have a run of outs.

I know several of his selection methods and they are simple. None have surfaced here. I do not know at what stage he starts punting them, nor for how long would he follow the system, nor his staking method. What I do know is that he's being punting for a living for 30 years (blackjack and horses) and he is quite prepared to cut his losses and walk away. Punts the horses only Saturdays and from the comfort of his home.

Surely some merit in waiting for a system to have one of those looooooooooong runs of outs then jumping in for a few bets. Surely the odds would be slighly in one's favour at this stage.

Waddyareckondudes?

Yes I do understand that if you have a run of tossing heads 100 times in a row the odds of tails coming up on the 101st toss is even money, BUT ....

If your system shows say a 25% S/R and you have just had 12 (just plucked this number out) losses in a row then, you have a serious argument to say that your system may deliver 5 of the next eight winners. It has to do this to get back on track!

Also when a system has a long run of outs, maybe people drop off and the odds will be better?!

Comments?

At the risk of being howled down.....cobblers.

Mark, not howling, I agree with you mathematically, but still for instance, if there is say given chance of a run of outs (given the S/R) of say 12, then the chances of 2 runs of outs seperated by one winner seems to be very unlikely???

Agreed, but still possible. Horses, dogs, red/black don't know your strike rate or your current run of in's/out's, but your subconscious does. It's easy to say "if I get a run of 10 losers, I'll do this or that". See how you feel when your bank has hit that many losers, confidence along with cash is gone, the mind takes over. Do you give up, or bet up?, surely it can't have 11, 12, 13 or 50 losers in a row. Why not?

Mark, well from experience I would have to agree, it is hard to weather the storm during a bad run, my confidence definitly suffers thats for sure.

Mark, you may have missed the point. You are so convinced that previous results have no bearing on future results. try this on for size.

Three identical boxes with lids, with a ten dollar note placed in one of the boxes. Odds of picking the box with the ten dollar note? 3/1? I know which box contains the note. You choose which box you think has the note. After you have chosen, I open the lid of another box, one of the remaining two boxes .... that box will always be empty (remember I know which box has the ten dollar note). I now offer you the chance to stay with your first choice (3/1?) or to switch your choice. What do you do and why would you do it?

This may demonstrate the rigidity of your thoughts.

Rigid?, me?, I've probably tried, invented, retried, reinvented, changed, back tested, (what other testing is there?) more systems, ideas, theories than most people have had hot dinners, (don't you hate ridiculous expressions) and with real money. Stopping because you've backed a winner, or stopping because you've backed a loser maks no sense whatsoever.

As for your quiz, I'll take the 3/1 and send you broke over time. The true odds are 2/1. But you ask would I stick with my original box or change?. When I first read this conundrum (not here by the way), my immediate reaction was "it doesn't matter, it's even money". I have also read the answer & understand the reasoning behind it, however I wouldn't post it here, because you will have inflexible people with no idea arguing each case, of which both have merit. It's the age old battle of intuition versus logic, and whilst I am making a living from the horses I'm not going to change the application of either of mine. And if your mate is making profits doing what he does, then I suggest he doesn't change either.

Sorry to ramble on, but you might like to read "The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night", by Mark Haddon. A nice little story about a boy with Aspergers Syndrome. I reckon a high functioning autistic child would clean up on the punt.

I remember seeing about this in some old punting books. I think they call it 'coming in on the grouter'. It basically means waiting until your selections have suffered a certain number of losers before you start betting. It did seem to work okay, but I don't think many people would have the patience or discipline to do it.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-16 22:49 ]