Update

Bets 76; Won 55; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 76 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 17.1%


Nice work Justine - and she's a real chance for the final as well. Looks like she's
playing Dementieva so it's down to price again. Lets hope the bookies post a bit earlier today.

No WTA Tournaments this week as the Fed Cup kicks off this weekend (25-26 Apr). There's usually a couple of betting opportunities though many of the ties are very one-sided (eg: Germany v Indonesia). Bookies are traditionally a bit slow to price the event but there could be some good odds about the Russia v Italy, Czech Rep. v Japan and Spain v Argentina ties.

www.fedcup.com
I'll post Fed Cup bet once prices are up.

Normal tournament schedule restarts next Monday.

The good news is that after a week off, the WTA returns with two tournaments - Estoril where we join the men's tour and the J & S Cup in Warsaw. Both tourneys are on red clay and have assembled reasonable fields though this week is generally considered a warm-up for the short but intense majors on the clay swing (Berlin, Rome, & Roland Garros).

Monday is traditionally quiet with very few games scheduled as this allows players to return from Fed Cup matches held over the weekend. The final rounds of qualies are played along with a couple of first round matches (nothing of interest today).

I'll therefore kick off the betting and analysis tomorrow. These tournaments start around 5pm AEST so I'll post as soon as the bookies publish their lines (hopefully late tonight or early morning).

The Fed Cup didn't attract much interest from the bookies or the punting public so there wasn't much to post.

A rather chaotic start to the week. There's been 5 late withdrawals across both tournaments so the draws are a mess. Bookies have yet to reframe their markets are are currently listing matches that aren't being played.

The withdrawals affected both my planned bets.

There's still plenty of time before the games start (7-8 hours) so I'll post as soon as the markets/matches are reframed.

Estoril & Warsaw
Red Clay

http://www.jandscup.pl/
http://www.estorilopen.net/

Apologies for the late post. There were quite a few late withdrawals today - see previous post - and the bookies are taking forever to reframe their markets. Interestingly, several bookies are still taking bets on games declared void through withdrawal more than 12 hours ago.

I'm waiting on a few more prices so may paste extra bets. Still quite a few hours until these games start.
I've picked a few genuine outsiders today as upsets are quite common early in the clay swing.


Cervanova v Parra-Sontanja
Round 1: Estoril

Both players prefer clay and both are competent on the surface. Cervanova's career clay record is 98/70 while Parra-Sontanja's is 59/36. Cervanova has had the better preparation as she played in the Dinan clay challenger 2 weeks ago where she reached the QF's (losing in a close 3 setter). Moreover, these two players met on Acupulco's red clay in early March where Cervanova was the easy winner in 6:2 6:3. Parra-Sontanja hasn't played since Miami 3 weeks ago so may be a little rusty for this encounter. I rate Cervanova a 64.1% chance of winning - she's been a solid improver over the past few months

Cervanova $1.65
($1.65 available at smaller bookies - the larger books may have better
prices but they're yet to post lines).

Cohen-Aloro v Na Li
Round 1: Estoril

Cohen-Aloro is a clay-court specialist with a competent 39/36 career record. She seems to enjoy this tournament making the SF's here last year and the QF's in 2003. Her opponent today Na Li is a great prospect on hardcourts but has only played 7 games on clay. Five of these were in the 2004 WulanHaoate Challenger which she won - but the tournament is mainly an all-Chinese affair with an extremely poor field (rated C25 which is 3 tiers below today's event). This game could be relatively close because Na Li is one of those girls who never gives up but she hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though she played Fed Cup) and is another player who is first-up on her least favourite surface. Of course Na Li can win but the prices are simply based on her overall WTA rating which does not adjust for the surface. She's seeded fourth for the tourney despite playing only 7 games on clay over several years. Note that Li had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday where the matches were on hardcourt, so it will certainly take some adjustment.

Cohen-Aloro $2.60 @ 5Dimes

Ondraskova v Douchevina
Round 1: Warsaw

Backing another outsider here but not without reason. Ondraskova isn't as well known as Douchevina but is still an experienced clay-court specialist with a 66/38 record. She's just played in the Dinan clay Challenger where she reached the final. Though losing, she beat 3 handy clay-courters on the way including Cervanova, Savchuk and Kloesel. While most of her wins have been on the Challenger circuit, she's had the benefit of 3 qualification games which she won easily in straight sets. Douchevina has some form on clay but most of this is also on the Challenger circuit and she rates hard courts as her favourite surface. She lost in the first round of Amelia Island 2 weeks ago which was her most recent game so she's first up on red clay. I rate these two very closely and Ondraskova will have to play very well but she's a genuine chance.

Ondraskova $2.70 @ Centrebet
(there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins)


Nagyova v Zheng
Round 1: Estoril

A very similar analysis to the game above. Zheng is a hradcourt player with a limited clay-court game. Her career record stands at 29/22, most of which was earned on the Challenger circuit. She hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though played Fed Cup) and is first-up on her least favourite/successful surface. Nagyova is another clay-court specialist with a lot of experience and a 121/72 career record. To be fair, she hasn't achieved much in the last year or so but she did play in the recent Dinan clay challenger where she reached the QFs. She's also had two solid qualification games which she won is straight sets (albeit against low ranked opponents). However she's had the better preparation and has the edge in experience. Note that Zheng also had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday. I rate these two very closely but Nagoya is a slight favourite in my book.

Nagyova $2.35 @ Centrebet
(there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins)


NOTES: Farina Elia has been troubled by a shoulder injury and while the highest ranked player on the Italian Fed Cup team, she didn't make the court. Similarly, Flavia Pennetta has been troubled by a foot injury and like Farina-Elia, didn't play in the Fed Cup tie despite being the second ranked Italian player.

Bookies slowly pricing up so an extra bet. Still a few hours till they start.

Schiavone v Vento-Kabchi
Round 1: Warsaw

Short odds on Schiavone but she's a specialist clay-courter coming up against Vento-Kabchi who has a 25/43 record on the surface. Schiavone is also coming of Italy's Fed Cup tie on red clay where she beat Safina - who has an excellent clay record - but lost to the classy Dementieva in 3 sets. In contrast, Vento-Kabchi is coming off a first round loss to the mediocre Sucha at Amelia Island 2 weeks ago - hardly the ideal preparation. Schiavone was a semi-finalist here last year so is defending plenty of points and should be focused. I rate her a 82% chance of winning so she's right on the value line but I'll take the bet.

Schiavone $1.22 @ Centrebet.
(may get a better price by a few cents as better bookies price up. Centrebet has lousy margins).

Update

Bets 80; Won 57; Lost 23
At Flat Stakes: Bet 80 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 16.3%

Well the Chinese players certainly proved me wrong yesterday. Mind you, I wouldn't be backing them at short odds in Round 2 today as Li and Zheng did little to impress. So plenty of upsets yesterday but not quite where we wanted them. A break-even day though with 2 wins, 2 losses and a void bet through a first set withdrawal.
Not many games scheduled today.


Bovina v Hantuchova.
Round 2: Warsaw

Bovina's coming from Fed Cup play with Russia (on red clay) while Hantuchova progessed by doing just enough to beat the lowly-rated Kosinska. Bovina is the better clay player and always seems to play well at this time of year. She's a past winner of this tournament in 2002 and has previously made the SF and QF at Estoril which is also on at this time of year. Bovina lists hard as her favourite surface - as does Hantuchova - but Bovina's 33/17 career clay record includes wins over a better class of player. Hantuchova's record stands at 33/27 and while she had a stellar clay season in 2002, she's acheived little since. Should be relatively close as both are having reasonable seasons. My program rates the match a 59-41% proposition

Bovina $1.78 @ Pinnacle.



Randriantefy v Sanchezlorenzo
Round 2: Estoril

Both players are competent clay-courters but Randriantefy definitely has the edge. Her 112/58 clay career record is far superior in the quality of opponents played and beaten than Sanchez-Lorenzo's 93/80 record. Randriantefy is coming off an easy first round win against the lowly ranked local wildcard Neuza, while Sanchez-Lorenzo beat the big serving hardcourter Osterloh. Sanchez-Lorenzo was lucky to get back into the game after losing the first set 0:6. Randriantefy is also having a better season and performed well on Acupulco's red clay earlier this year. This price is right on the value line but
I think the Madagascan will be too good.

Randriantefy $1.45 @ Pinnacle.

Update

Bets 82; Won 59; Lost 23
At Flat Stakes: Bet 82 units; Won 14.18 units; ROI 17.3%


A better evening with two hard-fought wins. There's quite a few early lines up (for a change) so it's possible to post earlier than normal.

Bovina's price shortened quite quickly yesterday so I'll put $1.71 in the record (as opposed to the early $1.78) to better reflect potential returns.


Cervanova v Craybas
Round 2: Estoril

I wrote about Cervanova on Tuesday so I won't repeat myself. Her relatively easy win over Parra-Sontanja bodes well for today because Parra-Sontanja is a far better clay player than Craybas. The American, in short, has a woeful 23/35 career clay record and has beaten few quality players on the surface. She beat 'no-name' Mihalache in the first round but no real surprises there as her opponent was a lowly-ranked Challenger player. Today will be a far tougher proposition as Craybas performed very poorly at Charleston and Amelia Island (green clay). Moreover, she failed to win a single WTA game on clay last season at 5 attempts. Of course upsets are always possible but I would be surprised - no shocked - if Craybas won today.

Cervanova $1.45 @ 5Dimes
(available at $1.50 at smaller books but these prices should come in)


Schydner v Vakulenko
Ronud 2: Warsaw

Schynder is at short odds today but not without reason. She has a solid 119/72 clay record which includes many wins over quality players and is coming off a solid performance at Charleston where she reached the semi-finals. Her opponent Vakualenko has done well to reach the second round. She beat the coming-back-from-injury Daniilidou in qualifying but despite what many people think, Daniilidou has a rather ordinary clay record. Vakulenko then went on to beat Chladkova and Chakvetadze but neither of these players are anywhere Schydner's class. That said, Vakualenko has the benefit of playing in the conditions while Schydner is first-up but I don't think this is an issue for someone of Patty's experience. One has to remember that Vakulenko is ranked 260 and has few, if any, big scalps to her name on the dirt. This is also only her second tournament for 2005 so she may by a little underdone.

Schydner $1.25 generally available.
(early line but prices should hold)

Time to eat a very large slice of humble pie.

First Li and Zheng make a goose of me and now, of all people, Jill Craybas.
What more can I say . . . I'm still in shock . . . not only of the loss but also the scoreline!

Here's hoping Schynder can salvage some of my pride.

Update

Bets 84; Won 60; Lost 24
At Flat Stakes: Bet 84 units; Won 13.43 units; ROI 16%

One win and one loss for the evening. In a bit af a flat spot over the past few weeks but still a break even proposition.


Ivanovic v Dechy
QF: Warsaw

Ivanovic is a real media 'queen' at the moment and has generated a lot of attention. She's been in outstanding form over the past few days though she isn't the most experienced player on clay at the WTA level. Her double-bageling of Sucha in the first round was clinical and she made the classy though out-of-form Zvonereva look ordinary. Dechy is competent on the dirt
but is in a bit of a form slump. Her recent Fed Cup form on red clay was ordinary to say the least. Dechy beat Domachowska yesterday but this was mainly due to her opponents large number of unforced errors. Today's game could be relatively close with the QF pressure but Ivanovic has the momentum.

Ivanovic $1.50 generally available.

NOTE: The Warsaw games are being streamed on the internet. The quality's good with a broadband connection.
See: http://www.itvp.pl/i.tvp/jands
On the right side of the page click " Zobacz transmisje".