ok Xanadu: show us your cards - who are the "Some other locals"?

Yeah timothy,

As per my earlier posts I will stick with these runners even though it has rained. I will be monitoring the earlier races to see if there are any problems with the track and I may add God's Own and maybe Desert War(apparently there has been a big "push" for him this morning). Can he handle the extra distance? If I don't get back to you before race jump I will stick with 2,6,8 and 10. Subject to the state of the track I may include 5 and 13 and maybe delete Xcellent-it all depends on the weather between now and race-time. Of course Xcellent is not a "local" - I thought I'd emphasise this to ensure that some pedantic person obsessed with trivialities doesn't "pounce."

Cheers.

What a class horse....what a champion! Probably no argument that she is the best staying mare to have raced in this country. We will leave any disagreement(s) whether she is the greatest mare to have ever raced at any distance, to another day.
While Makybe deserves all the accolades which she is receiving just give a thought to that other "class" horse that I highlighted in an earlier thread.....Fields Of Omagh(3rd). He has run in a number of Cox Plates now and has been victorious once and raced respectably in each that he competed.
My trifecta and first four dividend aspirations were dashed by an incredible run by the somewhat under-estimated mare, Lotteria.
Any astute punters get Lotteria in their trifectas and if so, how did you rate her class in comparison to other runners?

Cheers.

Xanadu class to me means what level a horse can successfully contest. A maiden winner can obviously handle the class (or pressure) of a maiden. Usually they can handle more, too. That is of course subjective. Makybe Diva can handle the pressure of any class race on this planet. To me, class is their level. You assess what that is (often it is better than where they are, especially when they are lightly raced) and if they are in their right "class" when they are entered, you then assess their chances against the opposition given the prevailing conditions. Class is not the "defining factor in the selection process", more it is a method of appraising a horse's top level, what it can handle and what it cannot. When a horse is outclassed, it doesn't run a close 2nd, it gets thrashed. Why? Because it could not absorb the pressure involved in racing in that field. If a horse runs 2nd, it handled the pressure, it just ran into another who also handled it but ran faster on the day. So, use "class" to define a horse's ability, to quantify it. If you like, you can quantify it in terms of saying "he's a class 1 horse" or "she's an open class mare" etc, and keep your own records of what you think their class is. Then, when a horse is out of it's class, don't back it, and if it's in it's class, assess it's chances.

Or, you can use other methods to define it's class. As people know, I use ratings to do that. That's my personal choice. However, the important thing to remember is to not go nuts obsessing about one aspect. Class defines what level they can race in, that's what it's for.

Cheers.

Class is it the defining factor?

Lets throw form out the window for a moment and concentrate on prizemoney only.
There are horses that fail miserably (recently) that have the inherent class to win at cricket score odds.

It's a long time between drinks, but you get some huge overs backing the top three by prizemoney when they are over 10/1.

Sydney Race 9 Majestic Feeling
top rated by API
Hiddeous form
First up from a spell
Paid $57.10 and $11.60

Surely $57.10 was overs.

Morphettville Race 2 Magical Spirit
Ranked equal third by API
Woeful form
Paid $70.50 and $10.80

Again huge overs based on prizemoney alone.

Morphettville Race 8 Umaquest
Top rated by API
First up from a spell
$11.40 and $2.90

Also had Cee Vee Austrax (old warrior) at the trots $42.30 and Flashing Red (top class horse) at $9.20

One must be selective and only bet when there are good overs to be had, but it certainly is food for thought.

Some horses win at big odds with no guide at all, but many win and their inherent class means that they have the potential to upset the applecart.

They don't win often enough to warrant backing them all, but when I see huge odds (overs) about these horses, I've just gotta have a go.

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Duritz, at last a bit of debate in respect of this subject. When I posted my initial thoughts I wished to engender some worthwhile diversity of opinions and this now appears to be happening. The points you make are valid and I, to some extent, have similar views. The point behind my initial post was that in races(NB. at all levels, ie. maidens open handicaps etc) there are specific class differentials between the runners contesting any particular race, meaning that some runners are capable of progressing and others have no real future prospects. The astute punters' task is to find those runners which are running "out of their class" in relation to other horses and this may provide a suitable betting opportunity. eg. a Cranbourne C3 race may have a runner which ran 3rd in a C4 race beaten by a relatively small margin at another country track. The punter has to determine whether there was merit in this run and whether he/she may have a possible "class" edge in today's race. It's all relative and requires some ability to determine the differentials in each class category, eg. the winner of a Class3 may be "head and shoulders " above runners in a Class4 on the same program "classwise". These are the horses which quickly work their way through their classes and astute punters may be able to benefit. eg. how many times have we heard a commentator declare "that was a good form race?" What he/she is getting at is that there are a number of class horses which are capable of going forward and competing competitively against stronger opposition, perhaps at good prices.
I think your other points reiterate what I was getting at in my original post.
Chrome Prince- interesting aspect that you have raised, I'll watch with interest.
During the week when I am at a particular venue and have not done the form in any great detail, I will wager utilising, in particular, the class angle and I can assure you that it provides a very profitable betting medium. Sure, there is skill involved to identify the "value" runners but the information is there for all punters to digest if they are interested.
So yes, I will remain "obsessed" with this particular aspect of form evaluation as unless the whole pattern of racing were to change overnight there will always be runners which have an inherent "class" advantage over their opponents.

Cheers.

MR8 4:30p.m.EST proved to be a profitable race for followers of "class" horses:
No1 Cape Of Good Hope 3rd - international superstar whose only problem is to have run into an absolute champion Silent Witness,in many of it's big race starts. I was particularly impressed with this horse's performance and will definitely be following his progress.NB. Prebble came back from honkers to pilot him-surely a good guide to punters!
No2 Barely A Moment 2nd($4.5plNSW) I was on this one and he definitely lived up to his reputation with his courageous performance to finish 2nd. A true Group 1 horse which should race well for the rest of his campaign.
I keep saying it and these topliners keep confirming it.....stick with the CLASS!

Cheers.

Class horse......probably the best stayer we have ever seen in our lifetimes.
Comparisons are now being made between this champion mare and the "immortal" Phar Lap......did he win three Melbourne Cups.....?

Cheers.

Chrome Prince- you are definitely dealing with a loser by defining horses' class by evaluating their class as determined by their prizemoney won compared to race starts etc...
There have been innumerable systems over the years based on similar fallacies......they all lose in the short-term(not long-term).
How many maiden races these days pay anything up to $50,000 to the winner, yet, all the winner had to do was to defeat a number of other inferior animals? Subsequently, this aspect gives a distorted view of the horse's ability, even though it only beat a field of plodders racing for exaggerated prizemoney.
Sure, have a go when you think that the odds are too attractive to ignore but the best of luck to you in the long run.

Cheers.

xanadu no offense mate but u cant compare the two.....all we know is they are the two greatest we have ever seen...lee freedman said none of us bar the youngest kid on track would see one better well that was very similar to phar lap.....its taken us 75 years to find our next champion it will take us another 75 to find the next after HER.... but they were both greatest of their eras