__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Just over half the races were won by our top two raters yesterday. :cool"

ALL track conditions
Top 1) won 81.5 from 290 (28.1%)
Top 2) won 127.5 from 290 (43.9%)
Top 3) won 172.5 from 290 (59.5%)
Top 4) won 203.5 from 290 (70.2%)
Top 5) won 217.5 from 290 (75.0%)

GOOD and DEAD tracks only
Top 1) won 59.5 from 198 (30.2%)
Top 2) won 91.5 from 198 (46.4%)
Top 3) won 116.5 from 198 (59.1%)
Top 4) won 132.5 from 198 (67.2%)
Top 5) won 143.5 from 198 (72.8%)

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

AP,

I can get similar figures just using the tatts ratings.

Top rank : 22%
Top 2 : 40%
Top 3 : 54%
Top 4 : 66%
Top 5 : 77%

All Ratings are good at finding the main contenders but how are you going to use these to profit ?

UB yes that's around about the same figure I get for the Tatt's top rater.

This really started as an exercise in to see if we could improve the accuracy of our three "crowd" members by combining their freely available ratings into a single rating. To date I think we're achieving that. From my very irregular recordings of their individual performances I show the following

Tatt's: 22.74%
Sky: 23.74%
Neural: 20.06%

At worst the "crowd" is doing 18.3% better than the best individual. Not too bad I think. I got that figure by dividing the Crowd's all track conditions top rated result 28.1% by the best of the individual's - Sky's 23.74%

Now making a profit is another matter entirely and the next puzzle piece to work on after improving the pricing equation. If we can firm up our strike rate which can only happen over time, and improve the accuracy of our prices so they take that strike rate into consideration, there's almost certainly going to be some way of using these numbers for profit.

There was very little value around last Saturday but the week before from memory a couple of double figure 100 raters won.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

AP I don't know how you can incorporate this but at this time of year any set of ratings struggle.
On the one hand you have rock hard fit "Winter" class horses meeting on the other hand not quite fully fit "Carnival" class horses.
Which tends to even the fields out somewhat.
If you can separate out the period from 1st July to 1st Sept from the rest of the year you may see some improvement.
looking forward to the findings from this exercise as it happens, as surely there has to be a way to get a quid out of this. (That has been my war cry for 30+ years by the way)

__________________
Jose'.

Jose

I understand what you're getting at and in a small way we can see that from the improved strike rate of our top selection on Good and Dead tracks. I've observed that a couple of the ratings services (Neurals mainly but also Sky to some extent) often over estimate the effect of returning from a spell. If I was to do this again I'd certainly set days last raced to zero in the Neurals. As we've pretty much operated this within the months you mentioned I look forward to an improved strike rate in the coming months

Without pre-empting the findings at all I think I can say that the market must be respected and when the money is not there for our selection, or it comes for another lower ranked selection then our crowd have probably missed something. I think we'll find that there's a point where our overlay becomes a liability and we shouldn't go over.

I think the optimum size of the "crowd" in this exercise is probably from 3 to 5. My feeling is that as we add more members the benefits will start to diminish until eventually our crowd will really just reflect the market which although being the most accurate crowd, is tough to make a profit from.

With this in mind my view is that ratings and the prices we derive from them are really only useful in the way we can use them to influence the size our bet's. I feel some hold ratings in much higher regard than is warranted, especially in modern markets as opposed to the Don Scott market's of the 50's, 60's and 70's. To this end I don't believe in the conventional interpretation of overs or unders. I don't think a 3/1 rated horse starting at 5/1 has been missed by the market. It's just a 5/1 horse that we're hoping will run as a 3/1 horse. If we win on this "overlay" it isn't because we were right and everybody else was wrong, it's just that we've profited from variance and luck

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

AP,

Thanks for your response and it was a really thought inspiring answer.

I was talking more from the top 5 selections rather then top rater as the top 5 are probably similar between all the ratings in most races although tipped differnt order.

But your top rater is out performing the other tipsters which is excellent.

Thanks for the ratings.

Saturday September 1st will be the last day of listing the Crowd Ratings in the current form. I'll spend September re-pricing and reviewing with view of returning in an improved form in October for the Spring.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

More venues to follow.

WFRM Race 1
1 98 $3.40
2 100 $3.20
3 72 $10.40
4 85 $5.10
5 --- ---
6 72 $10.40
7 68 $15.30
8 60 $316.20

WFRM Race 2
1 93 $4.60
2 90 $5.00
3 100 $3.80
4 60 $375.00
5 80 $7.50
6 63 $44.90
7 88 $5.40
8 69 $16.30

WFRM Race 3
1 78 $6.70
2 100 $3.00
3 83 $5.30
4 90 $4.00
5 66 $19.20
6 65 $22.80
7 70 $11.80
8 60 $301.50
9 67 $16.60

WFRM Race 4
1 75 $10.10
2 --- ---
3 80 $7.60
4 95 $4.40
5 68 $18.40
6 78 $8.40
7 77 $8.90
8 88 $5.50
9 69 $16.50
10 60 $379.90
11 75 $10.10
12 82 $6.90
13 88 $5.50
14 --- ---
15 100 $3.80

WFRM Race 5
1 94 $5.00
2 84 $7.10
3 99 $4.40
4 100 $4.30
5 83 $7.40
6 70 $16.60
7 60 $424.00
8 94 $5.00
9 63 $50.80
10 75 $11.20

WFRM Race 6
1 78 $7.00
2 100 $3.20
3 74 $9.00
4 65 $23.90
5 73 $9.60
6 72 $10.40
7 61 $91.60
8 60 $316.20
9 81 $6.00
10 72 $10.40
11 75 $8.40
12 84 $5.30
13 84 $5.30

WFRM Race 7
1 72 $9.30
2 79 $5.90
3 60 $281.90
4 64 $26.10
5 --- ---
6 74 $8.00
7 77 $6.60
8 82 $5.10
9 75 $7.50
10 100 $2.80

WFRM Race 8
1 94 $4.20
2 88 $5.10
3 76 $8.80
4 100 $3.60
5 79 $7.50
6 78 $7.90
7 --- ---
8 82 $6.50
9 74 $10.10
10 69 $15.40
11 60 $355.40
12 70 $13.90
13 68 $17.30

M_V_ Race 2
1 85 $5.50
2 100 $3.40
3 84 $5.70
4 78 $7.60
5 89 $4.70
6 60 $340.70
7 79 $7.20
8 74 $9.70
9 76 $8.50
10 77 $8.00
11 75 $9.00

M_V_ Race 3
1 --- ---
2 100 $2.50
3 --- ---
4 93 $3.00
5 67 $13.50
6 --- ---
7 64 $22.70
8 --- ---
9 74 $6.90
10 60 $245.10
11 61 $71.00

M_V_ Race 4
1 100 $3.30
2 79 $6.90
3 78 $7.20
4 85 $5.20
5 69 $14.10
6 64 $30.20
7 84 $5.50
8 60 $326.00
9 83 $5.70
10 75 $8.60
11 71 $11.70

M_V_ Race 5
1 60 $308.80
2 100 $3.10
3 82 $5.60
4 76 $7.70
5 84 $5.20
6 82 $5.60
7 60 $308.80
8 63 $37.00
9 73 $9.40
10 61 $89.50

M_V_ Race 6
1 90 $4.80
2 74 $10.20
3 100 $3.60
4 74 $10.20
5 71 $12.90
6 --- ---
7 63 $43.10
8 90 $4.80
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 70 $14.10
12 73 $11.00
13 85 $5.80
14 80 $7.20
15 60 $360.30

M_V_ Race 7
1 76 $10.10
2 60 $406.80
3 84 $6.80
4 79 $8.60
5 76 $10.10
6 100 $4.10
7 65 $30.70
8 74 $11.50
9 79 $8.60
10 94 $4.80
11 95 $4.70
12 91 $5.30
13 67 $22.40

M_V_ Race 8
1 100 $3.90
2 81 $7.40
3 --- ---
4 92 $4.90
5 60 $389.70
6 98 $4.10
7 69 $16.90
8 76 $9.70
9 67 $21.50
10 78 $8.60
11 86 $6.00
12 76 $9.70
13 73 $11.90

DOOM Race 1
1 88 $5.20
2 100 $3.70
3 91 $4.70
4 88 $5.20
5 70 $14.30
6 80 $7.30
7 72 $12.00
8 60 $365.20

DOOM Race 2
1 82 $6.10
2 60 $335.80
3 97 $3.70
4 96 $3.80
5 100 $3.40

DOOM Race 3
1 95 $4.70
2 97 $4.40
3 91 $5.30
4 80 $8.10
5 68 $19.60
6 60 $404.40
7 76 $10.10
8 79 $8.50
9 73 $12.30
10 100 $4.10
11 76 $10.10

DOOM Race 4
1 100 $3.20
2 73 $9.50
3 86 $4.80
4 76 $7.80
5 80 $6.30
6 84 $5.20
7 68 $15.20
8 75 $8.30
9 68 $15.20
10 65 $23.70
11 63 $37.60
12 66 $20.00
13 60 $313.70

DOOM Race 6
1 100 $4.10
2 63 $49.00
3 94 $4.90
4 89 $5.70
5 94 $4.90
6 88 $5.90
7 69 $17.80
8 63 $49.00
9 75 $10.80
10 60 $409.30
11 --- ---
12 85 $6.60
13 --- ---
14 61 $118.60

DOOM Race 7
1 80 $8.40
2 100 $4.30
3 62 $71.40
4 100 $4.30
5 75 $11.20
6 82 $7.70
7 79 $8.90
8 74 $11.90
9 76 $10.50
10 79 $8.90
11 97 $4.60
12 74 $11.90
13 91 $5.50
14 61 $122.20
15 60 $421.50
16 82 $7.70

DOOM Race 8
1 --- ---
2 93 $4.90
3 77 $9.30
4 --- ---
5 86 $6.10
6 74 $11.20
7 100 $4.00
8 87 $5.90
9 94 $4.70
10 85 $6.40
11 80 $7.90
12 77 $9.30
13 60 $397.00
14 73 $12.10
15 61 $115.10

MORP Race 1
1 91 $3.90
2 100 $3.00
3 72 $9.80
4 75 $7.90
5 82 $5.40
6 60 $299.00

MORP Race 3
1 71 $6.80
2 63 $22.90
3 72 $6.30
4 70 $7.50
5 100 $1.90
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 60 $191.20

MORP Race 4
1 61 $88.10
2 100 $3.10
3 89 $4.20
4 74 $8.60
5 85 $4.90
6 74 $8.60
7 60 $303.90
8 64 $28.10
9 64 $28.10

MORP Race 5
1 85 $5.20
2 68 $15.70
3 100 $3.30
4 --- ---
5 71 $11.60
6 --- ---
7 97 $3.50
8 --- ---
9 70 $12.70
10 60 $323.50
11 77 $7.60

MORP Race 6
1 92 $4.60
2 --- ---
3 84 $6.10
4 90 $4.90
5 --- ---
6 81 $7.00
7 100 $3.70
8 67 $20.10
9 60 $365.20

MORP Race 7
1 88 $4.90
2 68 $16.70
3 77 $8.00
4 77 $8.00
5 88 $4.90
6 85 $5.50
7 --- ---
8 67 $18.90
9 63 $41.10
10 72 $11.30
11 60 $343.10
12 100 $3.50

MORP Race 8
1 99 $4.30
2 60 $419.10
3 89 $5.80
4 --- ---
5 69 $18.20
6 95 $4.80
7 100 $4.20
8 86 $6.50
9 77 $9.80
10 --- ---
11 80 $8.40
12 74 $11.90

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

BLMT and TWBA to follow. Busy day today

GCST Race 5
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 66 $13.10
4 70 $8.10
5 79 $4.30
6 --- ---
7 67 $11.30
8 100 $2.10
9 60 $205.90

GCST Race 7
1 85 $5.60
2 100 $3.50
3 87 $5.20
4 84 $5.90
5 81 $6.70
6 85 $5.60
7 82 $6.40
8 77 $8.20
9 73 $10.70
10 72 $11.50
11 60 $350.50
12 72 $11.50
13 64 $32.40

GCST Race 8
1 94 $4.70
2 70 $15.50
3 95 $4.50
4 84 $6.60
5 86 $6.10
6 75 $10.50
7 100 $4.00
8 81 $7.50
9 --- ---
10 80 $7.90
11 68 $19.20
12 62 $66.90
13 60 $394.60

NCLE Race 5
1 99 $5.00
2 97 $5.30
3 87 $7.20
4 100 $4.90
5 100 $4.90
6 99 $5.00
7 83 $8.40
8 84 $8.10
9 --- ---
10 60 $482.80

TOWN Race 2
1 81 $7.40
2 94 $4.60
3 100 $3.90
4 84 $6.50
5 77 $9.10
6 93 $4.70
7 85 $6.20
8 74 $11.00
9 82 $7.10
10 60 $387.20
11 75 $10.30
12 75 $10.30
13 66 $24.70
14 69 $16.80

TOWN Race 4
1 99 $4.60
2 100 $4.50
3 90 $6.00
4 92 $5.60
5 87 $6.60
6 97 $4.80
7 91 $5.80
8 84 $7.40
9 60 $443.60

TOWN Race 5
1 100 $3.60
2 --- ---
3 77 $8.30
4 77 $8.30
5 68 $17.10
6 94 $4.20
7 71 $12.60
8 81 $6.70
9 90 $4.70
10 60 $352.90
11 63 $42.30
12 65 $26.60
13 62 $59.80

TOWN Race 6
1 96 $4.70
2 100 $4.20
3 94 $4.90
4 70 $16.30
5 69 $18.10
6 70 $16.30
7 91 $5.40
8 87 $6.20
9 60 $416.60

TOWN Race 7
1 83 $5.40
2 100 $3.10
3 78 $6.80
4 74 $8.70
5 75 $8.20
6 86 $4.80
7 72 $10.20
8 77 $7.20
9 65 $23.30
10 66 $19.70
11 60 $308.80

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash