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  #101  
Old 26th October 2004, 05:29 AM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Sure. Just keep track of all your tips in excel or something. That way you have an idea how you are doing overall.
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  #102  
Old 26th October 2004, 06:18 AM
Floydyboy Floydyboy is offline
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My P/L for the last 3 months
Golf: +AUD11.65
Horse Racing: +AUD14.67
Rugby League: -AUD0.04
Soccer: -AUD19.96
Total P&L: +AUD6.32
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  #103  
Old 26th October 2004, 06:19 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Well, it's taken 7 weeks, but that NFL Homedog system I mentioned a while back has finally had it's first selections for the season.

Arizona (+6.5) WON
Cleveland (+7.5) WON
Miami (+6.5) WON

One more for this round - Cincinatti (+6.5). Let's see how they go. I'm not a huge NFL fan, so at the moment I'm using this idea just for fun, but the record over the last 2 1/3 seasons stands at 26 wins from 31 bets, so who knows???
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  #104  
Old 26th October 2004, 06:29 AM
Floydyboy Floydyboy is offline
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SO how does the system go Sportz
Home team with the start when they get the start? Is that it
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  #105  
Old 26th October 2004, 06:31 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Only when the start is 6.5 or 7.5 points.
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  #106  
Old 26th October 2004, 01:12 PM
Floydyboy Floydyboy is offline
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Too easy Sportz.... What price did you get for that.....Theyre declaring it a major upset ....obviously thyre not getting the right info hahahaha
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  #107  
Old 26th October 2004, 01:30 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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There was a bit of a plunge on Denver, and Cinicinatti (+6.5) got out to $2.10!!! :grin:

That makes 27 from 32. Could be onto something here, but it's very selective so you need a lot of patience. No bets for the first 6 rounds and now 4 from 4 in one week!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-26 15:11 ]
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  #108  
Old 26th October 2004, 04:32 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Sportz what filters are you using? BTW, small and large home dogs have shown to be profitable longterm, middle sized home dogs have lost longterm.

You might wanna buy those +6.5s into +7.5 (providing it costs you 20 cents or less). Buying & selling to key numbers can be advantageous in the NFL.

BTW arizona and cleveland +7 were available. Shopping can make a pretty big difference in NFL.
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  #109  
Old 26th October 2004, 04:42 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Ok, forget the Q about the conditions, home dogs lined at +6.5 or +7.5.

It might interest you to know that home dogs lined at:

+7.5 is 9-17
+7 is 32-37
+6.5 is 33-34

This is from years 1985 to 2000.
Results from 2000-2003:
+7.5 is 11-6
+7 is 12-5
+6.5 is 13-9

So the trend has turned around in recent years, although I wouldn't want to rely on that for my bets.

One trend I'd trust is backing home dogs lined at +8 and higher.
From 1985 to 1999 they are 86-60
From 2000-2003 are 18-9.

Dogs lined from EV to +3 have also performed very well historically.
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  #110  
Old 26th October 2004, 04:55 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Perhaps I've just been lucky then. All I've done for the last 2 and a bit years is simply look at the lines on Tab Sportsbet and when the home team is given a start of 6.5 or 7.5, I back them. Like I said, I've only been doing it for a bit of an interest. I don't expect this strike rate to continue but I'm well ahead so far. :smile:

By the way, I've also been watching home dogs with starts longer than 7.5, but over the last couple of years I didn't think they'd done as well as your figures suggest.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-26 18:02 ]
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