Thanks Sportznut.
I'm getting a gut feeling regarding Geelong and the premiership mainly because they are improving and the 2 favoured teams have peaked.
But I think the $6 or so on offer is huge not value at the minute.

The only value re the flag at the minute is the Saints at $4.50 and Power at $13.
The only other hopes of winning the flag in my opinion are WCE, Melb, and the Cats and they are all unders.
Have to agree that relative to the end of season $6 was a handy price on Juddy and gee the Gehrig double last year was tasty!!!!!!!!

It sure is "unders" when I rate them $7+.

No need to congratulate me on Collingwood last week. Look at the previous week. The $ in the pocket at the end of each season is what counts moeee and if you think one losing bet on one particular weekend matters then you have absolutely no idea. Your mug punter status is alive and well.

Have you any idea of the Kelly Criterion? Probably not. Have a read - you just might learn something about professional staking.

Appreciate your edumacation pointers Rocksteady,but being a mathematician extraordinaire,am actually familiar with Kelly's methods.
And I bet to chances.
If I believe a selection is a 40% chance then I will back it as though it was,whether 4 to 1 is available or 40 to 1.
I do not increase the size of my stake because it drifted out a number of points.
I choose to bet only if I can get a certain percentage above my price.
In the case of the Magpies,I assess them as a 40% chance and will accept a minimum of 29%.
The size of my bet is independant of external factors and is only related to making an overall profit of 15% in the long run.
Any extra odds over my assessment is a bonus.

Port are a real worry at the moment. What's going on there???

Yeh,Im very depressed about the port power,so sad
he he he ha haha ho ho ho
Boo Hoo

Premiership Markets

SEPTEMBER 26,2004
Port $3.65 now $14
Brisbane $4 now $7.50
St kilda $5 now $4
Geelong $10 now $6.50
West Coast $13 now $4
Sydney $17 now $35
Melbourne $21 now $8
Essendon $21 now $51
Collingwood $21 now $81
Freo $35 now $28
Adelaide $35 now $21
Carton $51 now $41
Richmond $61 now $41
Kangas $61 now $28
Hawks $71 now $151
Western Bulldogs $101 now $151
(UNITAB)

Cheers

Port Adelaide are playing at home this week against the Kangaroos and they've been put up as favourites. You'd normally think it might be a good opportunity for the Power to get back on track, but amazingly, the Roos have won 10 of their 11 clashes!

I agree, they just aren't putting it together at the moment, but, they are still VALUE!!
They are one of the few teams that have the list to win it and that is the key.
I really think West Coast in particular are massive unders. The GF is 5 MONTHS away. They are the best team at the moment, but the Saints were at this stage last year also.
I still have huge ? marks over there key forwards.
I still feel that the SAINTS AND POWER are the best value re flag betting at this stage of proceedings.